Is six-man rotation the way to go in ’24?
BALTIMORE — Alex Cora might have set a record on Thursday at Camden Yards.
Exactly six months before Opening Day in 2024, on the afternoon before Chris Sale’s final start of the 2023 season, Cora revealed he plans to have the lefthander take the mound for the Opening Day start next March 28 in Seattle.
“That’s the goal, for Chris to have that start,” Cora said.
Of course, there’s the matter of those interceding six months — as well as the six that follow it. Sale has had six straight years of major injuries that have sidelined him for months at a time: bursitis of the shoulder in 2018; an elbow strain in 2019; a blown out elbow in 2020 with the rehab lasting through much of 2021; a broken rib, pinkie and wrist in 2022; and a stress reaction in his pitching shoulder in 2023.
Mindful of that, while Sale appreciated Cora’s vision of an Opening Day start, he’s eyeing the totality of 2024 more than he is the start of it.
“I want to make all my starts next year,” said Sale. “That’s the main goal.”
In his last start of 2023, Sale offered a reminder in Thursday night’s 2-0 loss to the Orioles of his still-considerable abilities. His fastball was a pedestrian 92 m.p.h., but he adapted by flustering the Orioles with precision in a slider-and changeup-heavy mix, limiting the AL East champs to one run on three hits over five innings.
In five September starts, Sale had a 2.88 ERA with 29 strikeouts and eight walks in 25 innings. He ended the year with a 4.30 ERA and still-elite 29 percent strikeout rate in 102„ innings.
He was encouraged both by his ability to adapt to his stuff from outing to outing in the final month and more importantly the fact that he won’t be rehabbing at the start of the offseason as he prepares for the fifth and final year of his $145 million deal.
“I’m trying to build on things. I’m not trying to get to zero by spring training,” said Sale, who plans to increase his offseason long-tossing while focusing on improving shoulder and lower-body strength as well as mobility this winter. “I’m trying to build something up. It definitely gives me something to chase this offseason, which is good.”
Sale has a vision of the work needed to be at full speed at the start of the 2024 season. But at this point, banking on a full, healthy season from Sale would be akin to purchasing a new car after buying a Powerball ticket.
So how to proceed with Sale, given the inherent uncertainty of the 34year-old’s health?
“Good question. I don’t know,” said Sox pitching coach Dave
Bush. “I’d love to go into the season and say we’re going to start with five starters and they’re all going to make 30 starts. The reality is that’s probably not going to happen. Whether it’s Chris that misses starts or someone else, it doesn’t really matter who it is. We’ll have backup plans.”
Might it make sense for the Sox to contemplate a six-man rotation of established big league starters so that they are prepared for the likelihood of Sale’s absences?
An increasing number of teams — most notably in 2023, the self-immolating Angels — have employed sixman rotations. As the Sox managed the workloads of James Paxton and Brayan Bello through the summer, while they rarely used a full six-man rotation, they frequently gave starters at least five and often six or more days of rest in June and July. What were the results?
The staple stable of Red Sox starters — Sale, Bello, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, Paxton, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Corey Kluber — made 31 starts on at least six days’ rest. The Sox weren’t great (14-17) but their starters averaged just over 5‚ innings per start with a 4.10 ERA and 26 percent strikeout rate.
When that same group pitched on five days’ rest, the team went 37-30 and the starters delivered a nearly identical pitching volume (5‚ innings per start) with a slightly higher ERA (4.27) and a lower strikeout rate (23 percent).
On four days’ rest, however, the Sox ran into trouble. Their record was 1317, their starters averaged roughly 4„ innings with a 5.99 ERA, and their collective strikeout rate crashed to 21 percent.
“I know some teams have tried it recently. No one’s really stuck with it,” said Bush. “My guess is eventually, you end up shorting your bullpen enough that it’s not worth it. Or, when you have the extra off days, you end up having guys going seven or eight days.
That probably isn’t great in the long run either.
“I wouldn’t rule anything out,” he added. “But it’s a challenge. That’s why I think no one is doing it. Plus, you’ve got to find six good starters then. Finding five is hard enough.”
The Sox’ second-half sputter has underscored that point. But they lack high-end upper-levels rotation depth that can feed the big league rotation, likely forcing them to create rotation depth on the big league roster. Maybe that comes from swing roles (again) for Crawford, Houck, and/or Whitlock.
But maybe it comes from building an incredibly aggressive effort to build rotation depth, with at least two or three additions.
Cora described a six-man rotation as “a good thought,” but then acknowledged the reality that a new and as-yet unknown Red Sox head of baseball operations will be in charge of setting such a course.
“Whatever we think right now, it doesn’t count. Obviously we’re in the process of getting somebody that is going to run the organization,” said Cora. “Where [we’re] at as an organization, [an opinion] really doesn’t matter.”
The same is true, in all likelihood, of imagining what a full, healthy season of Sale might look like. History suggests that any contributions — while potentially considerable — are hardly reliable.