Ukraine braces for winter attacks on energy grid
Aims to avoid a repeat of misery it felt a year ago
KYIV, Ukraine — Russian drone strikes near a nuclear power plant in western Ukraine this week have revived anxiety among Ukrainian officials and civilians over one of the most oppressive hardships of the war: a winter assault on their nation’s energy grid.
The strikes Wednesday, which landed near the Khmelnytsky nuclear facility, drew an angry response from President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who said it was “highly likely” that the power plant was the target. They also prompted another warning from the head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog agency about the precarious nuclear safety situation in Ukraine.
Zelensky vowed Wednesday night that Ukraine would hit back at targets inside Russia if Moscow tried once again to plunge his nation into cold and darkness. “This year, we will not only defend ourselves but also respond,” he said.
Unlike a year ago, Ukraine now has a growing fleet of longrange drones and has demonstrated an ability to hit military targets deep inside Russia.
Still, Ukraine remains vastly outgunned when it comes to long-range strike capabilities, and Ukrainian and Western officials have warned that it is likely that the Kremlin is stockpiling missiles to renew its assault on the energy grid as winter begins to bite.
The first Russian strikes specifically aimed at Ukrainian energy infrastructure in six months were reported Sept. 21, when the Ukrainian air force said it shot down 36 of 43 cruise missiles aimed at targets around the country. The attacks led to partial blackouts in the Rivne, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Dneprotrovsk, and Kharkiv regions, Ukraine’s state energy operator, Ukrenergo, said in a statement.
A year ago, Russia destroyed roughly 61 percent of Ukraine’s electricity generation capacity while also targeting its water supply and internet access. Many civilians resorted to candles to light homes and bathed using buckets. The absence of cellphone power and elevators in apartments that stopped working proved an additional challenge.
Ukrainian energy providers say they are better prepared to withstand a Russian onslaught this time. In particular, they said that many damaged facilities had been repaired, new equipment had been readied to provide spare capacity in case of attack, and defenses had been built around electricity substations and other pieces of critical infrastructure.
“We have learned our lessons from last winter,” said Maxim Timchenko, the chief executive of DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy company.
The Kyiv School of Economics estimated in early September that the cost of direct damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was more than $8.8 billion so far.
The campaign failed in large part because of the heroic work of utility workers to make urgent repairs even while under threat, as well as Ukraine’s ability to draw power from neighboring countries in Europe and the outpouring of support from the country’s allies.
Rafael Mariano Grossi, the head of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, said it had experts at the Khmelnytsky plant when air raid alarms sounded at 1:26 a.m. Wednesday, followed by two explosions.
One drone was shot down about 3 miles from the plant and another about 12 miles away, the agency reported.
Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s air force, said it was impossible to say for sure whether the nuclear power plant was the main target of the attack since the drones were shot down. However, he said, Russia targeted the power lines linking nuclear power plants to the grid last year, and it was likely they would employ a similar strategy this year.