In Lebanon, a country with little appetite for war, Hezbollah hesitates
New attack on Israel could mean US involvement
LONDON — As Israeli troops move deeper south into the Gaza Strip with the goal of destroying Hamas, the world is closely watching what happens on Israel’s northern border, where its forces have engaged for weeks in intense clashes with another, more powerful foe, Hezbollah.
Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, has found itself in an awkward position since its ally Hamas launched a deadly, surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7. Now, after years of spoiling for a fight with Israel, Hezbollah is torn between maintaining its credibility as a defender of the Palestinians, and its hesitation to get involved in a full-scale war.
Throughout its 40-year history, Hezbollah has defined itself as a resistance movement dedicated to protecting Lebanon, battling Israel, and backing the Palestinians’ quest for statehood. Yet after days of Israeli ground incursions into Gaza and as the Palestinian death toll climbs over 8,000, Hezbollah’s response has so far been worrying but restrained.
Hezbollah’s balancing act speaks to its outsize role in Lebanon, a small, dysfunctional country on Israel’s northern border. It is Lebanon’s most powerful political and military force, meaning that not even the Lebanese government can control its decisions, even when they affect the whole country. Hezbollah is also the most powerful node in a network of Iran-backed militias across the Middle East, which includes Hamas, meaning that its calculations often transcend Lebanon’s borders.
But as Israel’s air force levels whole swaths of Gaza, can Hezbollah maintain its reputation as a vanguard of the so-called axis of resistance movement if it sits on the sidelines of the conflict?
Hezbollah’s last major war with Israel was in 2006, and the group now has more sophisticated weapons and cadres of battlehardened militants than it had then. But so far, it has engaged only in limited skirmishes with Israeli troops. It could squeeze Israel by expanding its attacks on the country’s north while a large part of the Israeli military is tied up in Gaza, Western and Arab officials say, but for now the group is holding back because of domestic and regional calculations.
In Lebanon, there is little appetite for war, as the country suffers through a crippling economic crisis. Regionally, if Hezbollah opened a second front, it could prompt the United States to come to Israel’s aid.
“All of Lebanon, including Hezbollah — we don’t want a war,” said Lebanon’s foreign minister, Abdallah Bou Habib, who is in regular contact with Hezbollah. “There is Western pressure on the Lebanese government to apply pressure on Hezbollah not to go to war. We have dialogued with Hezbollah, and my impression is that they won’t start a war. But will Israel start a war? We need equal pressure on them, too.”
US officials have privately urged Israeli leaders not to launch a major strike on Hezbollah that could plunge the region into all-out bloodshed.
“We don’t seek an escalation in the north,” Ron Dermer, Israel’s minister of strategic affairs, said at a news conference Monday. “Hezbollah may decide they’re going to escalate, and we’re going to have to respond and we’re prepared for that.”
“We hope they don’t make that mistake,” Dermer added.