Ukraine official says war has hit a ‘stalemate’
Asserts neither side can breach enemy lines
KYIV — With the front line in Ukraine having barely shifted despite months of fierce fighting, Ukraine’s top commander has acknowledged that his forces are locked in a “stalemate” with Russia and that no significant breakthrough was imminent, the most candid assessment so far by a leading Ukrainian official of the military’s stalled counteroffensive.
“Just like in the First World War we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” the commander, General Valery Zaluzhny, told The Economist in an interview published Wednesday. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”
It was the first time a top Ukrainian commander said the fighting had reached an impasse, although Zaluzhny added that breaking the deadlock could require technological advances to achieve air superiority and increase the effectiveness of artillery fire. He added that Russian forces, too, are incapable of advancing.
The general said modern technology and precision weapons on both sides were preventing troops from breaching enemy lines, including the expansive use of drones, and the ability to jam drones. He called for advances in electronic warfare as a way to break the deadlock.
“We need to ride the power embedded in new technologies,” he said.
The general also said he underestimated Russia’s willingness to sacrifice troops in order to prevent a breakthrough and prolong the war. “That was my mistake,” he said. “Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.” His accounting of Russia’s casualties could not be independently verified.
His remarks come at a particularly fraught time for Ukraine in its 20-month battle against invading Russian forces. Western-supplied weapons have not enabled Ukraine to push through Russian defenses, and there are few weapons left that can make a difference. The willingness of Western allies to sustain support for Ukraine is ebbing, including in the United States, where some Republicans in the House are balking at providing more aid.
Ukrainian officials are also worried that the war between Israel and Hamas will both divert the West’s attention from Ukraine and siphon off weapons supplies that could be used in the fight against Russia.
While Ukraine was able to drive Russian forces out of nearly half of the land they seized in their initial invasion in a series of counteroffensives — surprising many military analysts — the general said “the war at the present stage is gradually moving to a positional form” where both sides can pin each other down.
He provided his assessment in a nine-page essay published alongside the interview, noting the need to find “a way out.”
The Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitri Peskov, said Thursday that the war was “not in a stalemate” and that Russian troops would continue to press forward on the battlefield.