The only way to prevent the worst of climate change
As the United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP28, continues in Dubai, too many people are still looking in the wrong direction when it comes to fighting climate change. Just about everyone focuses on the United States and other advanced economies since they are most responsible for past and current greenhouse gas emissions causing the planet to warm. But fewer think about less wealthy countries that will produce the most emissions in the future.
A new report from The Rockefeller Foundation reveals that the fight against climate change will be won or lost in these latter countries. Wealthier countries have made major investments in greening their economies but emerging and developing economies have not had the same opportunity. If they continue to fuel their growth with fossil fuels, these countries will produce enough emissions by later this century to trigger catastrophic global results regardless of what the United States and others do. Though harrowing, this data makes clear it’s possible to not only prevent the worst but ensure a better future for some of the world’s poorest people by empowering these countries with renewable energy technologies.
Everyone on earth wants the opportunity to lift themselves up, whether they live in Boston, Bangkok, Berlin, or Bamako. This was true in the days when the primary energy source was fire, and later wind sails, steam locomotives, and actual horse power. In today’s globalized, digital economy, opportunity comes through an electrical outlet, often powered by coal or some sort of fossil fuel. Today, access to electricity is the best predictor of whether someone is poor or able to escape poverty. The average American uses about 11,000 kilowatthours of electricity each year to power their dreams — but 3.5 billion people in 81 emerging and developing countries have to scrape by on less than 1,000, which is not enough to compete in the modern economy, while 675 million still live completely in the dark.
They deserve and need more energy. The good news is solar, wind, and other renewable energy options are both increasingly plentiful and affordable in the United States and other well-off countries and figure prominently in these nations own climate plans. But the bad news is that in poorer parts of the world, solar panels, batteries, and other necessary technologies are often out of reach — even when available, they are expensive and require new policies, regulations, and subsidies. That is why only 6 percent of wind and solar photovoltaics were deployed in developing countries in 2021, and only 0.6 percent went to Africa. Often those projects in Africa and elsewhere will pay 20 percent to 30 percent more for solar panels. This explains why Germany has almost six times as much solar generating capacity as all of Africa, despite having far less solar potential.
Developing countries are not waiting for their chance. They are pursuing electricity for growth however they can. Right now, fossil fuels are cheaper and easier than renewables for many countries. As a result, existing and planned coal-fired power plants are expected to release 273 billion tons of carbon dioxide over their operational lifetimes. Despite their expense and hazards, diesel generators are also a fixture in poorer communities. If those 81 countries continue along this path, they will contribute 75 percent of global emissions by 2050, driving warming dangerously high, even if wealthy countries meet their most ambitious climate commitments.
The future of climate change, and thus all of humanity, will depend on whether the world comes together to ensure these countries have the right to develop with renewable technologies. Today, estimates suggest energy transitions will require $4 trillion per year for decades, triple the current investment. It will also necessitate technological advances. For example, adapting grids to support additional renewable energy requires significant battery storage, but batteries are in such demand that they are often unaffordable or unavailable in less wealthy markets.
At COP, efforts are coalescing around various initiatives. The Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet, a public-private-philanthropic partnership that was established by The Rockefeller Foundation, Bezos Earth Fund, and Ikea Foundation, is currently supporting energy transitions in 20 countries, serving 1.3 million people and businesses with new or improved electricity — and on the way to serving 20 times more — while averting 147,000 cumulative tons of emissions. Meanwhile, leaders have come around several initiatives to increase supply of renewables, change policies, and, for example, work together to find and pay for the 90 gigawatts of battery storage across those 81 countries essential to adding 400 gigawatts of battery storage renewable energy technology to existing grids.
This is a start but far more needs to be done. These examples should not just make people believe that averting climate change is possible but also encourage them to take part. The task is big enough for everyone to do more. Developing and emerging economies need to shift from subsidizing fossil fuels to subsidizing renewables, wealthy nations and private companies must make more investments, and technology entrepreneurs — from Mumbai to Nairobi to Silicon Valley — should see this as the big problem to solve. Leaders have come around several initiatives to help those less wealthy countries pursue a sustainable future. That would make the future safer, and more just, for all of us.