Conflicted at the root of the matter
In a season where nothing has gone to plan for the Patriots, even the wins feel unfortunate now. ‘Tis the season for ambivalence. We’re programmed to root for the Patriots to prevail, but wins like the thrilling Christmas Eve upset in Denver result in losing draft position.
It feels typical for this atypical Patriots campaign that after losing games they needed to win, authoring a 2-10 start while being eliminated from playoff contention, they’re now winning games they need to lose to secure a top-three draft pick. Figures.
New England’s lost year could be for naught. At 4-11 with two games remaining, the Patriots sit in the fourth spot in the NFL Draft order, ostensibly removing them from the running for top quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Drake Maye and uber-talented receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. All this pigskin pain for no gain would render this season a failure larger than the new Gillette Stadium video board.
The players and coach Bill Belichick should be commended for not executing a Foxborough Fold. The team’s effort has remained admirable. They deserved to be rewarded against the Broncos in a venue that has been a House of Horrors for the franchise. However, there are conflicting interests. What’s in the best interest of the team (the hardworking players and coaches) — victories — isn’t what’s in the best interest of the organization.
That’s the conundrum for the final two games, Sunday on the road against the Bills and the season finale at home against the Jets.
Trumpeting his team’s competitiveness and the closeness of its losses has become a one-note song from Belichick. As a Patriots fan, do you want to settle for a team that merely competes or one that can actually contend? Losses are required for the latter.
The Patriots sit behind the Panthers, whose pick will be conveyed to the Bears; the 3-12 Cardinals, and the 4-11 Commanders, losers of six straight who finish the season against the 49ers and the Cowboys.
The Giants, Chargers, and Titans are all a
game ahead of the Patriots at 5-10. Looking at those teams’ schedules, it’s easy to project another loss for all three.
You might be thinking no problem for the Patriots if they win only once more because they lost to Washington, the Giants, and the Chargers. You would be surprised to learn that headto-head is not one of the primary tiebreakers in determining the draft order.
According to the NFL, when teams finish with identical records, the first tiebreaker is strength of schedule — the aggregate winning percentage of opponents. The team that played the easier schedule by winning percentage is awarded the higher pick.
The Patriots have played several good teams this year that figure to fight like Hades to win more games: the Eagles, Dolphins, Cowboys, Bills, and Chiefs. They’ve also played teams on the periphery of the playoff hunt such as the Saints, Colts, and Steelers that will be motivated to finish strong. That doesn’t bode well for winning the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker.
After strength of schedule, division record and conference record come into play. If those don’t work or the league is dealing with teams from different conferences, then finally head-to-head becomes a determinant.
In a season of misfortune on the injury front and in the kicking game, one could argue good fortune is losing games, not winning them.
Complicating matters is Belichick’s tenuous job status for 2024. No one wants to see his illustrious tenure end with a loss to the Jets. Winning that game is non-negotiable for Belichick, whose hatred for his former employer pumps through his veins.
The Patriots are going to play that game as if it’s the Super Bowl. The Jets will be eyeing their offseason and starting Patriots plaything Zach Wilson or journeyman Trevor Siemian, who was at the controls Sunday when the Jets nearly blew a 20-point lead against the Commanders.
That game feels as close to a lock for a Patriots victory as any on their schedule all season. That’s a minimum of five wins for the Fightin’ Belichicks. He’s 15 wins away from surpassing Don Shula for the most coaching wins in NFL history, so any bit of record-polishing resonates.
Despite the difference in records, this Sunday’s matchup with the Bills is another #winnablegame. The Patriots defeated the Bills in their most impressive result of 2023, getting the only meaningful come-from-behind winning drive in the career of now-deposed passer Mac Jones.
Buffalo has sputtered throughout the season. The Bills eked past the Chargers last Saturday. Despite some gaudy defensive numbers — including ranking third in the league in sacks and being one of nine teams allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game — the Bills defense has made Jones and Chargers backup Easton Stick look like fully competent and commendable starting quarterbacks.
With how confident and determined Bailey Zappe is playing, it wouldn’t be surprising if he delivered a stat line similar to the 25-for-30 for 272 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions that Mac did against the Jekyll and (Micah) Hyde Bills.
That would be unfortunate, because at this point in the Patriots’ unsatisfactory season, good fortune is more misfortune.
The close-losses narrative Belichick keeps peddling replete with the inherent implication of poor luck is specious. Poor fortune isn’t the primary driver for their place in the standings.
Plus, they’ve enjoyed fortuitous football breaks in their last two wins. Against Pittsburgh, on the verge of blowing a 21-3 lead, they received a beneficial call on an apparent offside penalty on Jahlani Tavai.
The penalty would’ve extended a Steelers drive and given them a first down at their 43, down, 21-18. Instead, a little-used sudden-head-movement false start was called on Pittsburgh’s long snapper.
Against Denver, the Patriots got a gratis touchdown courtesy of Broncos kickoff returner Marvin Mims Jr. Those points loomed large in a 26-23 victory that came after the Patriots squandered a 23-7 fourth-quarter lead. The Patriots also benefited from Denver’s best offensive player, wide receiver Courtland Sutton (concussion), getting knocked out of the game in the first quarter.
Those were fortuitous occurrences for the Patriots, or were they? In a season gone off the rails where draft position is the prize, they can be recast as bad luck.
That’s the conflict of watching the breaking-their-bad Patriots now. What’s good and what’s bad are subjective and subject to perspective — short term or long term.