House Democrats stick to the plan on GOP
Their strategy while still in minority: Let foes self-destruct
WASHINGTON — House Democrats have a plan for 2024: Try to make it look a lot like 2023.
While Republicans in the House are hoping the new year will let them turn the page on the conflict, ineffectiveness, and drama that defined their majority last year, Democrats
are hoping to use the strategies they practiced to stoke the flames of GOP chaos, this time with an election fast approaching.
“We’ve had the good sense to allow our colleagues on the other side of the aisle to self-destruct in living technicolor,” said Virginia Democratic Representative Gerry Connolly.
Last year involved several historic moments in the House, including the first-ever ousting of a speaker at the hands of his own party and weeks of unsuccessful votes to replace him. The Democratic
strategy, meanwhile, was to stay out of the way and project calm. Democrats stayed in lockstep through the series of votes, amplifying the divisions on the GOP side. Throughout the year House Republicans repeatedly struggled to pass even messaging bills and at times saw embarrassing defeats of basic procedural measures, as Democrats kept defections minimal and forced the GOP to muster its own votes amid a fractious conference.
The question remains whether Democrats will be able to convince voters to hand them back the reins merely by highlighting the alternative. They won’t be running in a vacuum — President Biden’s unpopularity could be a drag on the ticket.
And they’re facing tough odds to retake the House. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan electoral rankings site, gives Democrats at least a slight edge in 201 congressional seats and Republicans the edge in 210, leaving 24 seats (10 currently held by Democrats, 14 by Republicans) as “toss-ups” in the battle to claim the House majority.
‘You don’t want to help them out of the rut they’ve created for themselves.’ REPRESENTATIVE RICHARD NEAL, of Massachusetts
Still, in their first year taking over after the decadeslong tenure of former speaker Nancy Pelosi of California atop the party, the House Democratic leadership team led by minority leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York and whip Katherine Clark of Revere has played their limited political hand as best they can, their members say.
One of the key objectives of being the minority is making life harder for the majority, and this year will offer plenty of chances for repeats of last year’s constant state of crisis, starting with the first of two government funding deadlines that begin arriving mid-month. Congress also still must resolve a major security package of aid to Israel and Ukraine, which is tied up in a border security fight. Meanwhile, the razor-thin majority that Republicans spent last year grappling with begins the year even narrower, after the retirement of ousted former speaker Kevin McCarthy of California and expulsion of alleged fraudster and former New York representative George Santos. It will shrink again on Jan. 21, when another Republican is set to retire, leaving the GOP majority at 219213.
“You don’t want to help them out of the rut they’ve created for themselves,” said Springfield Representative Richard Neal, a Democrat.
Last year provided lots of opportunities for Democrats to practice hanging tough together, including voting unanimously with Republicans to vacate McCarthy as speaker in October and again on every speaker vote of the year in the full House to support Jeffries against Republicans’ candidate du jour. That unity held on nearly all GOP-led bills, forcing Republicans to deal with their own internal conflicts to pass anything with their slim majority.
And this year promises only more heightened dynamics, with an election inching closer every day. In one of its last actions before the holidays, House Republicans unanimously voted to open an impeachment inquiry into Biden, despite no clear evidence of wrongdoing, related to the business dealings of his son Hunter. That decision tees up a likely march toward a formal impeachment vote early this year, a vote that could prove challenging for Republicans in pro-Biden districts, with conventional wisdom that impeachments often help the president electorally.
Democrats feel confident the mix of tough political ground for Republicans and strong fund-raising and recruitment of candidates will pave the way to take back the House come November.
“There’s a deep well of optimism that we are going to be in the majority,” said California Democratic Representative Mark Takano. “[Leadership has] been very good at letting Republicans be Republicans and letting the American people see Republicans for what they are. And there have been times when they’ve . . . been very skillful at heightening that contrast.”
Still, even as they’ve strategically egged on Republican chaos, Democrats haven’t had opportunities to get much in return. Their influence on policy as the party out of power is minimal, and House Republicans have ignored or sidestepped them in any negotiations.
“It’s far easier to define what you’re against than it is what you’re for,” Neal said of life in the minority.
Democrats argue they’ve been the responsible ones, helping to carry government funding deals over the finish line, but lending a hand with the most basic of congressional tasks may not be enough to close the deal with voters.
Moderate Republicans who will have to campaign in tough areas, particularly the 18 who represent districts Biden won in 2020, acknowledge the party hasn’t done itself any favors this year.
“Obviously it did not strengthen our hand what happened in October,” said Nebraska Republican Don Bacon, referencing the ousting of McCarthy and struggle to choose his replacement. “It did hurt us.”
He said Democrats aren’t to blame for choosing to join the ouster, arguing they recognized McCarthy as “the biggest threat” to their majority hopes due to his fund-raising and political prowess. But, Bacon said, Democrats are wrong to think they’ll have an easy time, arguing inflation and Biden’s persistent unpopularity will be bigger factors.
“I could make a good case the other way around, too, so in the end it’s going to come down to candidates,” Bacon said. “I think it’s a toss-up fight, but I think Biden’s a drag on them.”
Democrats, though, are hoping for more opportunities to cause problems for Republicans and their current speaker, Mike Johnson of Louisiana, in 2024, by continuing to withhold Democratic votes to highlight Republicans’ struggles to get on the same page and force negotiations.
“Johnson has the same problem McCarthy has,” said Worcester Representative Jim McGovern. “He has his rule that allows any one member to move to oust him, and he’s got a group of insane Freedom Caucus members who are out of their mind . . . . Whatever happens, they’re going to need Democrats.”