FOR THESE N.H. VOTERS, A VARIETY OF PATHS FROM ‘UNDECIDED’
A search for direction and light in the looming shadow of Trump
They’ve been called the presidential wine tasters of America.
When it comes to presidential primaries, New Hampshire voters get to go first. This year, that means an outsized role in deciding whether Donald Trump will be the next Republican nominee, or whether his bid for a second term will end before it really begins.
For months, pundits have talked about the Republican nomination as if Trump has it sewn up. But in New Hampshire, underdogs have a history of beating the odds, and GOP voters’ support for Trump hovers at less than 50 percent, leaving a narrow chance that voters could pick someone else.
Polls and dozens of interviews show that voters who back Trump are for the most part certain of their choice. Those who love him, love him — criminal indictments, fraud trials, and promises to govern as a dictator, at least on day one, be damned.
Meanwhile, those still deciding tend to say that this year, they’d like someone new, regardless of whether they’ve supported Trump in the past. And even for never-Trumpers, the front-runner dominates their decision-making process. Their votes are as strategic as they are personal — more important than a candidate’s tax policy is whether she or he has any real chance of ousting the front-runner.
‘ACROSS THE BOARD, I THINK [POLITICIANS] ARE ALL LIARS. I DON’T KNOW OF REALLY ANY OTHER OCCUPATION OTHER THAN USED CAR SALESMEN WHERE YOU’D QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT THEY’RE TELLING THE TRUTH.’
- JEFF CONNOR
Age: 50
Hometown: Henniker
Occupation: Trucking
Candidates under consideration: “Wide open” (but not Donald Trump)
‘[THE REPUBLICAN PARTY] WAS STRONG ON NATIONAL DEFENSE, LOW TAXES, GROW THE ECONOMY FROM THE BOTTOM UP…. I JUST IDENTIFY AS, ‘WELL, I’M A REAGAN REPUBLICAN.’ I’M NOT A 2023 REPUBLICAN
BECAUSE IT JUST WENT TOO FAR RIGHT.’
- PAMELA COFFEY
Age: 70
Hometown: Peterborough
Occupation: Retired
Candidates under consideration: Chris Christie and Nikki Haley
‘I FEEL LIKE IF [DONALD TRUMP] GETS TO THE GENERAL, THERE’S A CONCERN THAT HIS LEGAL BAGGAGE, AS FABRICATED AS IT MAY BE, MIGHT SCARE OFF INDEPENDENT VOTERS. AND IF WE LOSE THE INDEPENDENTS, WE LOSE THE ELECTION.’
-JAMES THIBAULT
Age: 18
Hometown: Franklin
Occupation: High school senior
Candidates under consideration: Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy
Trump’s aura of inevitability works the other way, too: Some New Hampshire voters who didn’t initially want to vote for him are now leaning toward him as his rivals continue to flounder.
In the months leading up to Primary Day on Jan. 23, the Globe spoke to dozens of New Hampshire Republican voters undecided about whom they’ll support, to see what matters most to them, which candidates they’re eyeing, and how they’re making their decisions. Should undecided voters move en masse, they have the potential to loosen Trump’s chokehold on the party — and to shift the course of the entire election.
The Globe is following three of these voters in their decisionmaking journeys, to help shed light on how thousands of New Hampshire voters — and millions of Americans around the country — are approaching this election season, which many say could be the most consequential of their lifetimes. These voters don’t fit into tidy boxes. Their views are nuanced, idiosyncratic, and molded by unique life experiences. The alchemy of how any individual settles on a political candidate is more unpredictable and complex than reams of polls could ever capture.
This first story reflects their thinking in December, and subsequent articles will reveal where they land. (For audio of the interviews, visit bostonglobe.com.)
Jeff Connor
If choosing a GOP primary candidate is like dating, Jeff Connor is “single and looking to mingle.” For more than two decades, the 50-year-old has owned a small business, driving an enormous blue Kenworth W900L truck, often towing a 48-foot trailer bearing tens of thousands of pounds of New Hampshire’s namesake granite. A typical weekday morning starts before 5 a.m., with a trip north into Maine or south into Massachusetts.
Connor lives in his hometown of Henniker, population 3,000, where he serves as a water commissioner and a volunteer firefighter. Local government, he said, is a tool for neighbors to help neighbors. But he’s deeply skeptical of most national politicians, and of all the money in politics.
“Money makes monsters,” he likes to say, quoting a friend, and “more money makes bigger monsters.”
In his line of work, Connor spends about $1,800 a week on fuel, and even a tiny uptick in oil prices threatens his profits. He said the economy under Donald Trump was as strong as he’s seen, and he’s voted for Trump in the past. But this year, he’s hoping for a new option, concerned that the incredible animosity toward Trump would stall any progress the country could make.
“We’ve just spent too much time, money, energy, and resources fighting him,” Connor said of Trump. “It’s done nothing but hurt the country. I can’t imagine going through that circus again. I don’t think it’s going to help us. So therefore, I’m looking at another candidate that would help us without all of the turmoil.”
Family is everything to Connor. His younger child, college freshman Eli, is gender neutral, an identity that has come under attack from today’s Republican Party, whose leading politicians express animosity toward anyone who doesn’t fit neatly into a gender binary. He is looking for a candidate who prioritizes openness and tolerance, who isn’t trying to “fix” anyone who is different from them.
But he also knows that when it comes to politics, there are no perfect options.
Pamela Coffey
This is the first presidential cycle since 70-year-old Pamela Coffey and her husband, Dan Coffey retired from Amarillo, Texas, to Peterborough, N.H. Since moving three years ago, they’ve been adjusting to life in this idyllic small town, the basis for Thornton Wilder’s play “Our Town.” (One big change: no drive-thru coffee shops — “that would cut into the quaintness,” she joked.)
With three grown children and a lifelong interest in politics, Pamela is eager to participate in the first-in-the-nation primary, attending campaign events even for Republican candidates she doesn’t much like, and debating policy issues with new friends in the region.
A native of Perryton, along the northern edge of the flat, sparse Texas Panhandle, Pamela grew up in one of the most solidly Republican parts of the country, with a father and a husband who worked in local government. Now, she says, her party has lost its way.
Coffey has never voted for Donald Trump, whom she considers a “bully,” and she would prefer that businessman Vivek Ramaswamy “just … go away” — particularly after his provocative debate performances. When she spoke with the Globe in early December, two GOP candidates appealed to her: Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie. Coffey said she’d be eager to vote for them as a ticket — in either order.
She’s not impressed with her party’s stance on abortion, saying Republicans are “very probirth, but not particularly prolife.” When it comes to selecting a candidate, she said, character matters.
And with two of her children living abroad, in Dublin and Helsinki, Coffey said she’s keeping an eye on candidates’ foreign policy platforms and international affairs.
“I’m not just a local person, and America is not just a local country. We are international, and I think we owe it to our friends to help our friends,” Coffey said. “We have common interests with Ukraine. We have common interests with Israel. We need to be a strong force there. And who knows where it’s going to blow up next?”
James Thibault
Walk into the bedroom of 18-year-old James Thibault and you’ll immediately surmise his two great loves: Star Trek and politics. Proudly displayed near the miniature replica of the USS Avenger are autographed campaign signs from several of this year’s GOP presidential candidates, and a trove of memories from the prestigious Boys Nation program he attended this summer.
Thibault lives with his parents, sisters, and aunt in Franklin, a small, modest town about 20 miles north of Concord, where even before he was eligible to vote, he’d made politics a huge part of his life. He chairs the legislative youth advisory council, which lifts the voices of young people in state politics. He’s writing his college essay — the prompt: “describe a topic, idea, or concept you find so engaging that it makes you lose all track of time” — about federalism. And he can’t wait to participate in the democratic process for the first time himself.
“We’ve had experiences, because our school is a polling place, where we get to walk in during our social studies class and see it,” Thibault said. “But we’re always on the sidelines. And I feel that’s a very apt metaphor for how youth are in our governmental process anyway: We are kind of on the sidelines. We can’t actually fully interact.”
When the Globe talked with him early last month, he had yet to make up his mind about who should receive his first vote. Trump, the front-runner, was not his first choice, though Thibault said he would support him over Democrat Joe Biden. He sees Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor, as a “loudmouth” who Thibault suspects might be running just to land a slot as a cable news pundit. Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley strikes him as a warmonger, an attitude that frightens him as a draft-age man.
As of early December, James had narrowed his selection to two candidates: businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.