From door to door, working to give Haley her best N.H. shot
Koch-funded network brings in help to try to stop Trump
MANCHESTER, N.H. — Justin Wilson checked the custom GPS app on his phone as he pulled his silver Mazda alongside a snowbank and prepared to hit the next round of houses in a quiet residential neighborhood in New Hampshire’s most populous city.
His mission: To persuade those who are undecided — or open to changing their minds — to vote for Nikki Haley in the presidential primary on Tuesday.
Wilson is among the dozens of staffers canvassing for Haley’s campaign on behalf of Americans for Prosperity Action, or AFP, an influential political network led by conservative billionaire Charles Koch that endorsed Haley in November — the group’s first-ever such endorsement and a bid to stop former president Donald Trump.
This week, Wilson’s ranks have multiplied, as 100 full-time employees from 37 states flew in for the crucial week between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.
It is a do-or-die moment for the former South Carolina governor, whose rise in New Hampshire in recent polls has given the Republican primary the closest thing to competitive energy in a nominating contest so far dominated by Trump. She needs a strong showing to gain momentum in later primary states, where Trump is even more dominant, many analysts say.
In her home state of South Carolina, where she served as governor from 2011 to 2017, Haley trails Trump by 29 points, according to a recent poll. But if she can beat him in New Hampshire, or come close, the thinking goes, she can ride that momentum and persuade voters in later states to take a second look.
The Koch network seems to
AFP broke tradition this cycle when it endorsed Haley as the candidate with the best chance of beating Trump.
think there is hope, especially among independent voters in New Hampshire, who make up a large swath of the electorate.
While the group has an onthe-ground presence in all 50 states, it has invested heavily in New Hampshire, and effectively has served as the Haley campaign’s ground operation.
“Our role is critical because Haley doesn’t really have a ground game,” said Greg Moore, New Hampshire director for AFP, noting that Haley didn’t hire a state director until October.
“I don’t know how they could have captured the momentum they are building [without AFP] because they just don’t have a ground operation supporting them,” he said at AFP Action’s office near the Manchester airport.
That effort was apparent on a recent Sunday, as Wilson, a grass-roots engagement director, checked in with voters who, AFP data suggest, are still undecided.
John, 66, who declined to give his last name, said he is leaning toward Haley after hearing her in debates. As a registered independent, “everybody comes to my door,” he said, so he’s also learned about her policies from canvassers.
“My sense is given the other choices, she’s probably the strongest for my daughter and grandson and their generation,” the Manchester voter said. “But I don’t think any single person can make all the right choices.”
Dave Brownsberger, a registered independent, said he sees Haley as “more down to earth” than the other candidates, but hasn’t made up his mind on who he will vote for in the Republican primary. He just hopes to elect a president who will make him proud to be American when traveling internationally, he said. Since the Trump years, he said, it feels like “you have a bull’s-eye on you.”
“We need to get the country back together,” Brownsberger, 54, said. “I think the person that finally gets elected needs to work toward the people, not their own agenda and stuff like that.”
A few doors down, Teri Anderson, 66, told Wilson she wants “anyone but Trump.” She likes Haley, and said her climbing poll numbers make Anderson inclined “to add to that.”
“We just need a good representative for the Republican Party,” said Anderson, who is a registered Republican. She said, however, that if Trump wins the nomination, she will switch her registration to vote for President Biden in the general election.
AFP said its internal polling shows Trump ahead of Haley and the rest of the candidates by 12 percentage points in early states. But when put head-tohead, the two are statistically tied.
The group has spent $27 million flooding the airwaves and mailboxes of voters in early primary states, but has also leaned heavily into using paid staff and canvassers to knock on doors since February. After endorsing Haley in November, the operation switched to educating voters about her agenda in person.
AFP officials believe those conversations are invaluable to building a base of support. The organization hopes to speak to as many as 70,000 undecided voters before Tuesday.
“TV ads are gonna wash over them [and] they’re gonna be immune to the mail — it gets dumped,” said Moore, the AFP state director. “What we’re trying to do is actually meet them where they are, have those conversations, and have them talk through what they are thinking about. We’ve had a lot of success, in terms of building a ground game here.”
AFP broke tradition this cycle when it endorsed Haley as the candidate with the best chance of beating Trump.
According to the group’s internal polling, slightly more than one-third of the people who say they support Trump are open to considering another candidate. It’s what staffers call the “soft Trump” voter.
Moore insisted Haley remains the most electable Republican, a message that has resonated in New Hampshire, where Trump lost in both the 2016 and 2020 general elections. It’s a message that has been echoed by Haley and her surrogates, including New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, one of her most vocal supporters.
She’s Trump’s best competitor, and the only one with a ground game in the state, Sununu said after Haley’s rally in Bretton Woods on Tuesday night.
Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida has not spent much time in New Hampshire compared to Iowa, where he eked out a distant second-place finish. After the caucuses, DeSantis held an event in Greenville, S.C., and on Wednesday news emerged that he plans to shift his campaign away from New Hampshire to focus on South Carolina, which holds its primary Feb. 24.
“I mean, Asa Hutchinson has done more campaigning in the state than Ron DeSantis,” Sununu said Tuesday night, referring to the candidate who finished sixth in Iowa. (Hutchinson dropped out the next day.) “It’s definitely a twoperson race. And that’s what America wants.”