After 2 years, Ukraine considers conscription
Draft bill draws criticism; leads to quick revision
KYIV — When Russian troops and tanks invaded Ukraine in February 2022, tens of thousands of Ukrainians rushed to serve in the army in a surge of patriotic fervor. The influx of fighters who dutifully answered their draft notices or enlisted as volunteers helped to repel Russia’s initial assault and thwart the Kremlin’s plans to decapitate the Ukrainian government.
But after nearly two years of bloody fighting, and with Ukraine once again in need of fresh troops to fend off a new Russian push, military leaders can no longer rely solely on enthusiasm. More men are avoiding military service, while calls to demobilize exhausted frontline soldiers have grown.
The change in mood has been particularly evident in the heated debates over a new mobilization bill that could lead to drafting up to 500,000 troops. The bill was introduced in parliament last month — only to be quickly withdrawn for revision.
The bill has catalyzed discontent in Ukrainian society about the army recruitment process, which has been denounced as riddled with corruption and increasingly aggressive. Many lawmakers have said that some of its provisions, such as banning draft dodgers from buying real estate, could violate human rights.
The biggest sticking point concerns the highly delicate issue of mass mobilization. Measures that would make conscription easier have been seen by experts as paving the way for a large-scale draft, of the kind several military officials have recently said is needed to make up for losses on the battlefield and withstand another year of fierce fighting. Many in Ukraine fear that such measures could stir up social tensions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has appeared unwilling to take responsibility for instituting a major draft, instead asking his government and the army to come up with more arguments supporting this move. “I haven’t seen clear enough details to say that we need to mobilize half a million” people, he said in a recent interview with Channel 4, a British broadcaster.
The military has suggested that mass mobilization is an issue for the civilian government, a response that could exacerbate brewing tensions between Zelensky and his top commander, Valery Zaluzhny. Zelensky rebuked Zaluzhny in the fall, after he said the war had reached a stalemate.
“It’s a hot potato,” said Petro Burkovsky, the head of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, a Ukrainian think tank.
“The political leadership decided to avoid the issue of mobilization” for most of the war, Burkovsky said. But with troops depleted after two years, ignoring it is not sustainable, “and right now, someone has to be politically responsible.”
The challenge of mustering enough soldiers is just one of many facing Ukraine as foreign military and financial aid becomes harder to come by, threatening to weaken Kyiv’s ability to hold the front line and support its economy.
The need to replenish the Ukrainian armed forces has been evident for months. While Kyiv has kept its casualty count secret, US officials this summer put the number at nearly 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.
Russia’s casualties, the US officials said, were nearly twice that — the result of sending waves of troops in bloody assaults to capture cities, regardless of the human cost. But Russia has a much larger population, and it has swelled its ranks with tens of thousands of prisoners.
By contrast, Ukraine’s efforts to rebuild its forces have lagged.
Soldiers at the front said that they had noticed a steady decline in the quality of recruits. Many are older, nursing injuries from years ago, and unmotivated to fight. More men are also trying to avoid the draft, escaping the country or hiding at home. Desertion, said one Ukrainian soldier stationed in the east, is also becoming an issue.
That has prompted military recruiters to shift to more aggressive tactics, forcing men into conscription offices, detaining them, sometimes illegally, and forcing them to enlist. Lawyers and activists have spoken out but there is little sign of change. Many Ukrainians have likened recruiters to “people snatchers.”
Zaluzhny said in an essay in November that the recruitment process needed to be reviewed “to build up our reserves.” But he and other officials have offered little alternative to a largescale mobilization.
Experts say that is the main purpose of the mobilization bill, which does not specify how many troops should be added. It would lower the conscription age to 25 from 27, limit deferments over minor disabilities, and restrict the ability of draft dodgers to obtain a loan or buy property. It also gives local authorities greater responsibility for conscription.
But many lawmakers, including from Zelensky’s party, have raised concerns at measures such as those affecting the disabled and draft dodgers. They also say that relying on local governments may exacerbate problems. Regional recruitment centers have been plagued by corruption, with officers taking bribes to let men evade being drafted.