Hurdles for Red Sox recovery stretch even into the minors

The Red Sox farm system is in a better spot than it’s been in some time. The convergence of top-100 prospects Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and Kyle Teel — all 21 years old or younger — in Double A Portland in 2024 suggests the team could be getting considerable homegrown impact in the big leagues.

That said, it’s far from a guarantee that those players can become a future core to allow the Sox to escape from the bottom tier of the American League East. After all, the AL East can make a compelling case as not only possessing the greatest concentration of big league talent in baseball, but also the best farm systems — with multiple publications viewing the Sox as lagging behind.

Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, Baseball Prospectus, and ESPN have all published their top-100 lists in recent weeks. All four have the Rays and Orioles with at least as many top-100 prospects as the Sox. Moreover, both systems are anchored by higher-ranked prospects — the Orioles with No. 1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday; the Rays with Junior Caminero, who ranks either third or fourth. Two of the four publications suggest the Yankees also have more top-100 prospects than the Sox.

In their recently published comparative rankings of all 30 farm systems, Baseball America and ESPN both pegged the Red Sox as having the No. 13 system in baseball. Both placed the Red Sox as the fourth-best system in the AL East, behind the Orioles (No. 1 in both lists), Rays (No. 7 in both lists), and Yankees (No. 9 in Baseball America’s list, and No. 6 in ESPN’s survey).

Holliday gives the Orioles their third straight consensus No. 1 overall prospect, joining catcher Adley Rutschman and reigning AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson. Even after a blockbuster trade last week that sent lefthander D.L. Hall and shortstop Joey Ortiz to the Brewers for ace Corbin Burnes, multiple publications suggest the Orioles still have five prospects who rank among baseball’s top 50, explaining why their status as having the top farm system didn’t require adjustment.

Those prospect rankings, of course, represent a moment in time, and certainly can shift in the coming years or even months. Perhaps the Sox can accelerate the development of some young pitchers, and Wikelman Gonzalez or Luis Perales can more clearly define paths forward as starters. Maybe Mayer can re-establish himself as one of the game’s very best prospects after his rocky (and injury-riddled) entry into Double A in 2023. It’s possible Miguel Bleis — after missing most of 2023 because of shoulder surgery — could reemerge as one of the elite five-tool prospects in the minors.

Still, even with a few blue-chip prospects who have shown the potential to emerge as above-average everyday big leaguers, the overall state of farm systems through the AL East suggests that the continuing emergence of a homegrown core won’t necessarily be enough to propel the Sox to a better standing in the division. The challenge facing the team is considerable not just for the immediate term, but also beyond.