Sizing up the quarterback draft class
For the NFL Draft, 2024 is another Year of the Quarterback.
It’s unclear whether this will be a banner year like 2020 (Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Tua Tagovailoa) or a dud like 2021 (Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones). But quarterbacks undoubtedly will dominate the early rounds.
There are six who could go within the first 50 picks, maybe even all in the first round. And I count as many as 11 teams that will be interested to varying degrees in drafting a quarterback early.
Let’s take a look at where the top ones may land:
1. Southern Cal’s Caleb Williams: Bears at No. 1. It has to be tempting for the Bears to swap picks with the Commanders, pick up a bunch of extra picks, and draft another quarterback at No. 2. As talented as Williams is — he already is drawing comparisons to Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck — he has shown questionable leadership and maturity over the past year, raising questions about whether he can be the face of a franchise.
However, there is one reason why the Bears will bite their lip and look past Williams’s faults: Mitchell Trubisky.
In 2017, the Bears made one of the most colossal draft whiffs of all time, choosing Trubisky at No. 2 over Mahomes (10th) and Deshaun Watson (12th). Current Bears general manager Ryan Poles didn’t make that pick, but the scars remain deep within the walls of Halas Hall.
As big of a pain as Williams may be, there is simply no way the Bears can risk letting him become a superstar with another team.
2. Louisiana State’s Jayden Daniels: Commanders at No. 2. Since losing Kirk Cousins in 2018, the Commanders have whiffed on Dwayne Haskins and cycled through Alex Smith, Case Keenum, Taylor Heinicke, and Sam Howell. Considering they’re sitting pretty at No. 2, and new
owner Josh Harris seems to want to make a big splash, there’s no need to overthink this one. Unless they can somehow snag Williams (a D.C. native who would love to play for his hometown team), it seems like Daniels is the guy.
The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner has tremendous athleticism and rushed for 1,134 yards last year, but is also an intriguing passer who threw 40 touchdown passes against just four interceptions. Daniels is viewed as a little bit of a cleaner prospect than Drake Maye, and will bring a much-needed jolt of excitement to a moribund franchise.
The fact that Maye is from North Carolina also will likely factor into the Commanders’ decision. It’s not fair to compare him to past UNC quarterbacks, but given that Trubisky was a bust and the Commanders just went through a 4-13 season with Howell, taking another UNC guy probably isn’t a great selling point with fans.
3. North Carolina’s Drake Maye: Patriots at No. 3.
The Patriots surely will weigh taking a top receiver here (Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, or Malik Nabers) and whether they can find a quarterback in the late first or early second round. And Maye’s season was a bit underwhelming, as he completed just 63 percent of passes and saw his stats dip across the board.
But the Patriots rarely draft in the top five, and ultimately they will find it too hard to pass up a talented quarterback who checks a lot of boxes. Maye has great size (6-4, 223), big hands, a big arm, and athleticism, with 16 rushing touchdowns the last two years. He also interviewed well at the combine and reportedly showed good leadership traits at UNC.
Maye might have the most to work on among the top three quarterbacks, but some scouts believe he could have the highest ceiling.
4. Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy: Vikings at No. 11.
Once the top three are off the board, it will ignite a scramble for the next three among as many as eight teams.
The Giants at No. 6 surely are thinking about moving on from Daniel Jones, but they still owe him $36 million this year, and drafting a quarterback at No. 6 would create all kinds of headaches for coach Brian Daboll, so a mid-round pick seems likelier for them.
The Falcons at No. 8 need a quarterback, but they might be zeroing in on Kirk Cousins in free agency. The Falcons have spent the last two years floundering with a young quarterback, and likely want a veteran to take charge of their talented roster. The Jets need a quarterback of the future, but using the No. 10 pick on a quarterback probably wouldn’t make GM, er, quarterback Aaron Rodgers too happy.
Which leaves the Vikings at No. 11, especially if they lose out on Cousins. McCarthy comes from a pro-style offense and would fit well in the Vikings scheme, which is heavy on playaction and putting the quarterback under center.
5. Oregon’s Bo Nix: Broncos at No. 12.
The Broncos need a quarterback after cutting Russell Wilson, and they almost certainly need an inexpensive rookie after paying Wilson $39 million to not play in 2024. The Broncos will be tempted to trade up and draft a quarterback, but they’ve been trading away a lot of premium picks, including last year’s first-rounder and this year’s second-rounder to New Orleans for Sean Payton.
Instead, the Broncos can just over-draft Nix, an athletic and instinctive player who has questions about his arm strength and whether he was just a product of the system at Oregon.
6. Washington’s Michael Penix: Raiders at No. 44.
Several teams picking in the teens need a quarterback for the future, but it’s probably a little too high for Penix, who has a twice-torn ACL in his right knee and may have gotten a bit exposed when facing Michigan’s NFL-caliber defense in the national championship game.
The Raiders clearly want a young quarterback and may have to trade up from No. 13 to get one, but new GM Tom Telesco has a history of almost never trading picks in his 11 years as Chargers GM.
And Telesco may not have to worry. The 14th pick might be too high for the Saints to draft a QB with Derek Carr still under contract. Same with the 16th pick for Seattle, which has Geno Smith. The Jets and Broncos, if they don’t land a QB in the first round, don’t have second-round picks.
The Raiders may want to trade up into the back end of the first round or earlier in the second round to get Penix, but they might be able to stay patient.