BASEBALL 2024 THE GLOBE STAFF PREDICTIONS
The 2024 Major League Baseball season opened Wednesday morning with the Dodgers facing off against the Padres in South Korea. The Red Sox open on March 28, with a date against the Mariners in Seattle. Who will win the AL East? Who will win the World Series? Seven Globe writers are offering up their predictions for the season. Read on to find out which teams they think will make the playoffs and why.
PETER ABRAHAM
AL East: Orioles. This is their time, and it will be for a while.
AL Central: Tigers. The rules say somebody has to win this division. It might be a team that finishes 81-81.
AL West: Rangers. It will take a while to get the rotation healthy, then they’ll take off.
AL wild cards: Astros, Blue Jays, Rays. Bad news in the Bronx. Expected news in Boston.
ALCS: Orioles over Rangers. Corbin Burnes gets the job done in Game 7.
NL East: Braves. They’re just too talented not to win the division.
NL Central: Cubs. Craig Counsell will prove to be worth his contract.
NL West: Dodgers. Not picking the Dodgers would be like betting against the sun coming up.
NL wild cards: Diamondbacks, Padres, Phillies. Dave Dombrowski back in the playoffs. How about that?
NLCS: Dodgers over Phillies. By the time October comes around, the Dodgers will have a rotation that matches their lineup.
World Series: Dodgers over Orioles. Mookie Betts wins his second championship in five years with the Dodgers. Fellow Red Sox outcast Babe Ruth only had one in his first five years with the Yankees.
CHAD FINN
AL East: Orioles. Rutschman, Henderson, Rodriguez, and now Holliday . . . this, dear Red Sox, is what a player-development machine looks like.
AL Central: Twins. Former No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis never hit more than 14 home runs in a minor league season. He hit 15 in 217 at-bats for the ‘23 Twins.
AL West: Rangers. Marcus Semien (100 home runs, 20.2 bWAR over the past three seasons) remains baseball’s most underrated star.
AL wild cards: Astros, Blue Jays, Mariners. The
Red Sox? They’ll hit, a lot, but thin pitching will leave them playing their last meaningful game in August.
ALCS: Orioles over Astros. Brandon Hyde’s Orioles reach the Fall Classic the Earl Weaver way: pitching, fundamentals, and three-run homers.
NL East: Braves. Ronald Acuña hit 41 home runs and stole 73 bases last season. Sheesh, remember when you, me, and Jose Canseco thought 40/40 was a big deal?
NL Central: Cubs. Seiya Suzuki lived up to his billing in his second MLB season (.842 OPS). On the docket for Year 3: Leading the North Siders to a surprising playoff berth in a lousy division.
NL West: Dodgers. Alex Cora would be an awfully good fit for the 2025 Dodgers if they don’t live up to their massive expectations this season.
NL wild cards: Diamondbacks, Padres, Phillies. Bryce Harper’s most similar batter through age 30 is Barry Bonds. Not sure, but I think that means he’s going to hit 73 homers in 2029.
NLCS: Dodgers over Braves. Dodgers Gold Glove shortstop Mookie Betts takes durable Braves lefty Chris Sale deep to clinch the series. (This one is for you, Shaughnessy.)
World Series: Dodgers over Orioles. The 1966 World Series, avenged at last!
CHRISTOPHER L. GASPER
AL East: Yankees. A new-age Murderers Row featuring Aaron Judge and new addition Juan Soto (.930 OPS last season) powers the Bronx Bombers back to AL East eminence.
AL Central: Twins. Mental block removed: The Twins snapped their 18-game postseason losing streak in 2023. Remember the name Royce Lewis. AL West: Astros. This division is the Astros Invitational. Hated Houston makes it seven division titles in eight seasons.
AL wild cards: Orioles, Mariners, Rangers. The prospect-rich Orioles have the road map the Red Sox are trying to follow. Seattle wields the AL’s deepest starting rotation.
ALCS: Astros over Yankees. The Astros maintain their playoff mastery over the Pinstripes. When do they get a “The Dynasty”-like documentary?
NL East: Phillies. Ex-Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski spares no cost to dethrone the Braves.
NL Central: Cubs. Pitching guru and new Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow created an ace in Wrigleyville with Justin Steele.
NL West: Dodgers. LA won the offseason with the signings of Shohei Ohtani and fellow Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and will win the NL West for the 11th time in a dozen seasons.
NL wild cards: Braves, Padres, Reds. At least Sox fans can root for Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts in the playoffs. It’s not October without Atlanta.
NLCS: Dodgers over Phillies. NL All-Star shortstop Mookie Betts delivers a walkoff blast in Game 7. World Series: Dodgers over Astros. Dave Roberts saves his job, and the Dodgers are the best team $1 billion can buy.
JULIAN McWILLIAMS
AL East: Orioles. They still need some arms, but top to bottom, they have the best group of young players in the division that have made an immediate impact.
AL Central: Twins. This is one of the easiest divisions in baseball. While it has improved this year, the Twins are still at the top of the class.
AL West: Astros. The Rangers won the World Series last year, but the Astros are still the crème de la crème. Houston has won for so long that it’s difficult to go against them.
AL wild cards: Mariners, Rays, Yankees. Imagine that — the defending champs not making the postseason. But the Rangers’ starting pitching is questionable, old, and injury-prone. The Mariners have one of the best staffs in baseball. It’s hard to fathom the Yankees missing the playoffs for two consecutive seasons. The Rays have proven they will always find a way.
ALCS: Astros over Yankees. Like clockwork.
NL East: Braves. The most well-rounded roster in all of baseball, blending quality free agent talent with premium homegrown stars and a superstar in Ronald Acuña Jr.
NL Central: Cardinals. Last year’s forgettable season was a shocker, but they will return to their divisional glory in 2024.
NL West: Dodgers. They will put up another NL West banner, but not a World Series banner — even with the major additions of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
NL wild cards: Cubs, Giants, Padres. The Padres don’t have the same hype following last year’s abysmal season, and perhaps that will help. The Giants added some pieces, including well-respected manager Bob Melvin. The Cubs should take a leap forward under new manager Craig Counsell. NLCS: Braves over Padres.
World Series: Braves over Astros. Atlanta will have its second crown in three years.
DAN SHAUGHNESSY
AL East: Orioles. Great ballpark. Talented, bigname players. Owners who care. Everything the Red Sox used to be.
AL Central: Twins. Homage to Joe Mauer’s Hall of Fame Summer.
AL West: Astros. Like the Patriots, they really didn’t need to cheat.
AL wild cards: Blue Jays, Rangers, Yankees. Lastplace Red Sox have no illusion of contention, sell everyone at deadline. Juan Soto is AL MVP.
ALCS: Orioles over Astros. Baltimore advances to first World Series since 1983.
NL East: Braves. Chris Sale wins Cy Young Award and Lobel says, “Why can’t we get players like that?”
NL Central: Reds. Great baseball town finally rewarded.
NL West: Dodgers. Baseball’s Beatles. Shortstop Mookie Betts wins MVP.
NL wild cards: Mets, Padres, Phillies. Padres advance with a team of shortstops. Phillies back in October, and Dave Dombrowski reminds the Red Sox how to spend and win.
NLCS: Dodgers over Phillies. Potential TV ratings bonanza. Hope Manfred doesn’t put games on Peacock.
World Series: Orioles over Dodgers. Jim Palmer and Sandy Koufax serve as ceremonial captains as O’s stun Dodgers just as they did in 1966.
ALEX SPEIER
AL East: Orioles. Oriole nests tend to be intricate and enduring, assembled at lofty elevations to remain out of reach of predators. All of that — as well as a juggernaut of a farm system — seems to bode well for a sustained run atop the division.
AL Central: Tigers. In what is arguably the weakest division in baseball, the Tigers feature an interesting mix of young players ready to take steps forward and veteran additions to complement them.
AL West: Astros. I recently learned that my 13year-old son is familiar with the erstwhile Bohemian practice of defenestration. I’m guessing the Astros, who have advanced to the ALCS seven straight years, are not.
AL wild cards: Blue Jays, Mariners, Twins. The most talented rotations in the AL seem like decent bets to keep playing into October.
ALCS: Mariners over Orioles. George Kirby will throw a knuckleball for the final out as the Mariners advance to the World Series for the first time. NL East: Braves. In a nod to load management and the team’s sport scientists, Brian Snitker will refuse to let Acuña, Riley, or Olson play more than 158 games.
NL Central: Cubs. Will Craig Breslow’s pitching program bear postseason fruit with his former team?
NL West: Dodgers. My picks are nothing if not risk-tolerant. (To be clear: my picks are nothing.) NL wild cards: Giants, Phillies, Padres. All-in desperation to make the postseason seems like a reasonable rationale to pick these three.
NLCS: Dodgers over Braves. Shohei will declare himself fit to handle the ninth inning of the clincher.
World Series: Mariners over Dodgers. As yet another wild-card team celebrates a title and Vermont honors series MVP Cal Raleigh with “Big Dumper Day,” the Dodgers announce plans to forfeit the first month of 2025 in hopes of improving their chances of a championship.
TARA SULLIVAN
AL East: Orioles. New owners, a solid core of young talent, and plenty of motivation after last year’s 100-win season landed with a thud in a wild-card sweep by the Rangers. What’s not to like?
AL Central: Twins. Somebody has to win this division, and why not Minnesota, led by Royce Lewis at the plate?
AL West: Astros. Seven straight ALCS appearances with two World Series wins make Houston the most dominant team of this generation. The beat goes on.
AL wild cards: Blue Jays, Rangers, Yankees. AL East remains strong, making life difficult for the rebuilding Red Sox, and the Rangers will be back in the mix for a second straight title.
ALCS: Orioles over Astros. The Orioles finally arrive, with their young core motivated by last season’s playoff ouster. Catcher Adley Rutschman continues to impress.
NL East: Braves. A seventh straight division title and a third straight 100-win season could be on the way, especially if Max Fried pitches for a big contract.
NL Central: Cardinals. Even if Sonny Gray’s hamstring keeps him from debuting for his new team on Opening Day, he can lead a worst-to-first story in St. Louis.
NL West: Dodgers. As if the roster weren’t loaded enough, the addition of Shohei Ohtani (the hitter, at least) makes baseball’s best team on paper even better.
NL wild cards: Mets, Phillies, Padres. The Mets and free-spending owner Steve Cohen didn’t get results last year, and the NL East remains supremely competitive, but the rising tide will lift all ships.
NLCS: Braves over Dodgers. The Dodgers’ talent pool is impressive but the Braves will send them home disappointed one more time.
World Series: Orioles over Braves. Success has been building in Baltimore for a few seasons, and this year they cash in.