Patriots in tricky spot at No. 3
They can pick imperfect QB or trade down
NBC Sports analyst Chris Simms weighs the options and comes to a decision: The Patriots should definitely select a quarterback at No. 3 in next month’s NFL Draft. They are in position to get a potential franchise guy and shouldn’t pass it up.
But, well, now that he thinks about it, maybe the Patriots should trade down and acquire more draft picks. They need a lot of help other than quarterback, and maybe they aren’t ready to take on a rookie with firstround expectations.
“I don’t mean to talk out of both sides of my mouth,” Simms said. “They’re in a tough spot, because there’s definitely holes all over the roster that need to be improved.”
The Patriots are drafting in the top five for the first time in 30 years. And it’s fortuitous for them that this draft has six first-round quarterback prospects, including four expected to be taken in the top 10. All the Patriots have to do is sit back for two picks, then stroll up to the podium to take either LSU’s Jayden Daniels, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, or Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy.
But the decision might not be so easy for new Patriots front office boss Eliot Wolf. An intriguing Plan B has emerged, thanks to the Vikings securing the 23rd pick to go with No. 11.
The Vikings’ intentions are obvious — they want a rookie quarterback after losing Kirk Cousins, and now have the ammo to trade up and get one.
With the Bears almost certain to draft Caleb Williams at No. 1, and the Commanders almost certain to draft a quarterback at No. 2 (looking like Daniels), the Patriots are the Vikings’ first target.
The Patriots clearly need a quarter
back for the future. But there’s no guarantee that the third quarterback taken in the draft will hit. And they need many other things — a No. 1 receiver, a left tackle, a tight end, and more help on defense.
“New England wouldn’t pass up a quarterback here, right?” ESPN’s Mel Kiper wrote last week. “I’m not as confident as I was before free agency began.”
The Patriots have five weeks until the draft to make their decision, and it likely will be guided by two factors.
One will be the trade return for the No. 3 pick. In 2021, the Dolphins traded No. 3 to the 49ers for No. 12, first- and third-round picks in 2022, and a first-round pick in 2023. But the Vikings may not have to give up three firstrounders since they have two in the same year (in the NFL, a firstrounder a year from now is considered equal to a second-rounder this year).
Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap, whose draft value chart is used by several teams, said Nos. 11 and 23 for No. 3 would be a fair swap. Or the Patriots could try to spread the return over two years.
“If I’m New England, I would rather have 11 this year, the Vikings’ fourth-rounder this year, and then take the Vikings’ first in 2025,” he said.
The other guiding factor will be the Patriots’ quarterback evaluations. If they have Maye graded as a top prospect, then there should be no debate.
“If you’re sold on him and have full conviction, I draft the quarterback,” CBS’s Charles Davis said.
“If you love the quarterback, take him,” ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky said.
But a trade becomes enticing if the Patriots don’t have Maye rated highly, or have him graded on a similar level as McCarthy, Bo Nix, or Michael Penix.
Simms said Maye isn’t refined enough to take at No. 3.
“I love his arm strength, but when you watch a game, he leaves the pocket for no reason, he throws all over the place,” Simms said. “If he’s on the Jordan Love plan to sit and develop, then he’s not the No. 3 pick in the draft.”
There’s also a decent argument for building up the team first before drafting a quarterback. The Texans spent 2021-22 using high draft picks on other position players, then struck gold in 2023 when they added rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud to a talented young roster.
Of course, the Texans also endured a 7-26-1 record and two irrelevant seasons that got two head coaches fired.
Patriots radio broadcaster Scott Zolak said the team should draft a quarterback at No. 3 only if they are ready to play him as a rookie.
“If they aren’t in love at three with the QB and not going to play him, I say trade,” Zolak said. “Especially with still not having a No. 1 wide receiver or a starting left tackle through free agency.”
The Patriots want to rebuild through the draft, and the best way to do that is to acquire more picks. They currently have just eight in seven rounds, with multiple picks in only the sixth round. Former Patriots Rodney Harrison, Ted Johnson, and Rob Ninkovich all want the Patriots to trade down and collect more picks, though Harrison would be OK with taking receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 3.
“I know it’s a gamble,” Ninkovich said. “It can be a slippery slope if that guy turns out to be Josh Allen. But unless you’re 100 percent sold on a QB at three as a long-term guy, I would take the multiple picks and trade out. I like having more numbers over one pick with your fingers crossed.”
There are several merits to sticking at No. 3 and drafting Maye. He checks a lot of boxes: size (6 feet, 4 inches, 220 pounds), arm strength, athleticism, and leadership intangibles. He’s only 21, and played on a terrible UNC team in 2023.
Also, the predraft process can magnify a player’s flaws; plenty of analysts had questions about Patrick Mahomes’s mechanics and footwork, too.
And the state of the franchise may necessitate drafting a quarterback at No. 3. The Patriots haven’t had good quarterback play since Tom Brady left four years ago, haven’t created any excitement in free agency in 2024, and might not have this opportunity again.
“To me it would be tough to pass on a quarterback,” NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah said. “Just being in [Gillette Stadium] last year, I didn’t recognize it. It was just so flat, and it wasn’t just a bad team, it was a boring team. There’s just no juice, no excitement whatsoever. I look at whichever [quarterback] is there, if it’s any of those top three quarterbacks, those guys that bring so much energy and life to your franchise. It just feels right.”
Simms said that even if the Patriots trade down, they need to come away with a quarterback early in the draft. If they skip over quarterback entirely and go into the season with just veteran seatwarmers Jacoby Brissett and Bailey Zappe, there won’t be much belief in the team from fans and in the locker room.
“If you’re standing pat, you’re saying, ‘Hopefully we’re not a disaster this year,’ ” Simms said. “That’s hard for players, that’s hard for the fan base. How many times are you going to be in this spot to have this power to kind of dictate your own future?”
It’s a tricky spot for Wolf and new coach Jerod Mayo. Whiff on a first-round quarterback, and it costs people their jobs. But passing over a quarterback who develops into a star elsewhere is also a quick path to the unemployment line.
“It’s not easy, and that’s why it goes to how do they have the quarterbacks ranked and tiered?” Simms said. “How big of a dropoff is it between the third and fourth and fifth quarterback? That’s ultimately going to drive how aggressive they are and where they go as an organization.”