In-house options clearly Sox’ priority
FORT MYERS, Fla. — What to make of the fact that the Red Sox — a team with a perilously thin rotation — remained on the sideline as Michael Lorenzen, a 2023 All-Star, signed a oneyear, $4.5 million deal with the Rangers? There are a couple of interpretations.
“The ATM is closed,” one agent joked.
There are obvious reasons to reach that conclusion.
A chorus of evaluators expressed surprise that, with Lucas Giolito lost for the season, the Red Sox haven’t made a push to add an established starter. In their assessments, a front-of-the-rotation addition such as Blake Snell (who signed a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants) or Jordan Montgomery (who remains a free agent) made the most sense if the Red Sox want to contend.
But if not those two — and all indications are that Montgomery is not a consideration — then at least Lorenzen, particularly given the relatively modest salary.
Lorenzen not only was an All-Star last year with the Tigers but also netted Detroit infielder Hao-Yu Lee in a deadline deal with the Phillies. Lee is ranked the No. 12 prospect in the Tigers system, part of a deepening pipeline for an organization that appears on the upswing.
Given the possibility of adding an established starter who also could be a trade candidate if the season goes sideways, it’s hard to fault members of the industry for their suspicions that the Red Sox are simply done spending real money to upgrade their roster prior to the season.
Yet there’s another interpretation — one that doesn’t necessarily rule out the first. At this stage of the spring, it has become evident that the Red Sox are not only open to but excited about giving Garrett Whitlock and Tanner
Houck chances to prove they can be big league starters following healthy offseasons.
Both have shown impressive stuff. Houck has 16 strikeouts and three walks in 15 Grapefruit League innings; Whitlock has 16 strikeouts and two walks in 15„ innings, along with a recent minor league performance in which he struck out 10 of 20 hitters.
If either proves he can be a big league starter, it will transform the outlook of the team for their several remaining years of team control. If both do so, the Sox would get closer to a different phase of their building cycle thanks to two young, costcontrolled, high-end contributors in critical roles.
That outlook is certainly a factor in what the Sox are willing — or not willing — to do when it comes to signing an established starter.
“It takes a lot for [free agent signings] to line up,” said chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. “We need to do our homework. We need to stay engaged. We need to do all of those things.
“But we also have to make the moves that make sense for us working within all of the constraints. It’s really easy to talk about the financial ones, but there are more.
“There’s also wanting to give the guys that we have here a chance to establish themselves. It’s believing in what we have and maybe even more than what others might believe outside the doors of the clubhouse.
“Not to put too much into spring training statistics, but guys are pitching differently. They’re using different pitches. They’re landing secondaries. They’re leveraging strengths. All of those things are happening, and it does seem to indicate that there’s a meaningful step forward in front of these guys.”
Still, the absence of Giolito means the Sox are thinner than they’d planned to be entering 2024. They wanted Giolito as a workhorse to anchor the rotation and take some of the load off Whitlock, Houck, and Kutter Crawford.
“What we were banking on was the durability, the consistency of 170-180 innings,” said Breslow. “That was about a sure a bet as one could make, and now we are once again reminded that there are no such things as sure bets as it relates to starting pitching.”
Without Giolito, the Sox lack that innings-eating presence, and their depth has been thinned. Cooper Criswell (who threw four shutout innings against the Orioles Thursday) and Josh Winckowski (likely back in a multi-innings relief role to start the year) offer options.
Given that they don’t want to rush prospects such as Richard Fitts (acquired in the Alex Verdugo deal and expected to open the year in Triple A) or Wikelman Gonzalez (likely to begin in Double A), the Sox will open the year with fewer big league-ready options than they’d prefer. Even so, Breslow expressed optimism that the team can help more pitchers throughout the organization develop into big league options.
“I would love to add more depth,” said Breslow. “After maybe six, seven starting pitchers, there is a gap in terms of just who we think is ready if needed early on.
“But it’s really difficult to talk about the infrastructure decoupled from the depth, because I think the whole point is we’ll have more depth than we can name right now as a result of a really strong infrastructure, whether it’s Richard Fitts who emerges as a viable rotation candidate at some point this season, or guys that we didn’t know could pull down rotation spots actually looking like major league starters.”
That, at least, is a glass-half-full longerterm outlook. More immediately, there is an interest in adding depth — but likely not at the expense of Crawford, Whitlock, or Houck being in the rotation.
With waves of pitchers about to become available both via the waiver wire and optouts of minor league deals, the Sox are likely to add pitching between now and Opening Day. A swingman — capable of a multiinnings bullpen role to start the year but with the ability to offer starter depth in case of injuries — seems like the preferred fit.
As for bigger-ticket free agents? For those, it appears the ATM is likely to remain unavailable.