Abortion question shakes up Fla. vote
Democrats see a path to relevance
KEY WEST, Fla. — Suddenly, November got a lot more interesting in Florida.
The nation’s third-largest state, once the biggest battleground in presidential politics, has become less important as its election results have trended repeatedly toward the political right. Few consider it a true swing state anymore.
But three rulings from the Florida Supreme Court on abortion and marijuana, released Monday, may boost Democratic campaigns before the general election on Nov. 6.
The court, which leans conservative, upheld a ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, allowing an even more restrictive six-week ban to soon take effect. However, the court also allowed a proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot that would guarantee access to abortion “before viability,” or at about 24 weeks.
In a third decision, the court gave the go-ahead to a separate ballot measure that would legalize recreational marijuana.
Taken together, Democrats see the rulings as an opening to drive their voters — and perhaps new voters likely to support their candidates — to the polls.
“It has the potential to pull out more voters, and those voters are more likely to be with us than with the other guys,” said Christina Reynolds, senior vice president of communications for Emily’s List, which supports and funds Democratic women running for office. “It draws some focus to Florida that might otherwise not be there, because we’ve had our hearts broken before.”
No one is suggesting that two constitutional amendments are enough to swing the presidential race in Florida against former president Trump, a Palm Beach resident who won the state in 2016 and 2020. Though President Biden has traveled to Florida for fund-raisers, he is not expected to spend much time campaigning — or paying for expensive television advertising — in the state.
Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chávez Rodríguez, said in a memo after the rulings were released that the president had an “opening” in Florida, though it “is not an easy state to win.”
In the past, Floridians have elected Republicans while also approving ballot proposals promoted by liberal-leaning groups, including ones that set a $15 hourly minimum wage, restored felons’ voting rights, and legalized medical marijuana.
And Florida elections tend to be closer in presidential years than in midterm years. Moving a few thousand votes here and there could affect races down the ballot. On Monday, Democrats rushed to point out that Senator Rick Scott, a Republican running for reelection, said he would have signed the six-week ban.
Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican, enacted the 15week ban in 2022. Last year, as he prepared to run for president in more religious states like Iowa, he signed the six-week ban, even though polls have repeatedly shown that a majority of Floridians want most abortions to be legal. Trump criticized DeSantis for supporting the sixweek ban, calling it “a terrible thing.”
Several political observers noted that DeSantis might have had an easier time rallying voters against the abortion ballot measure if Republicans had stuck with the 15-week ban.
“Abortion is to Republicans what immigration is to Democrats: If you’re talking about it, it’s a complication, it’s a problem, it’s an obstacle,” said Carlos Curbelo, a former Republican representative from Miami.