At No. 3, the choice is clear
Director of scouting Eliot Wolf, coach Jerod Mayo, and a couple dozen Patriots scouts and coaches have been crisscrossing the country over the last month to narrow their decision for the No. 3 pick in this month’s NFL Draft.
“We have to determine who can handle being the quarterback of the New England Patriots,” Wolf said earlier this offseason.
A little advice for Wolf and Mayo, who have been in New England long enough that they probably don’t need it: Size matters.
The Patriots can’t just draft any old quarterback who looks good slinging the ball in shorts and a T-shirt at a pro day. They play northeast football — cold, rainy, windy, snowy football over the final two months of the season — in the season’s most important games.
The Patriots need a quarterback who has the arm strength to power the ball through whipping winds and the bitter cold in Foxborough, Buffalo, or New Jersey; and who has the size and bulk to withstand the rigors of a 17-game regular season. Think 6-foot-5-inch, 238-pound Drew Bledsoe. Or 6-foot-4-inch, 225-pound Tom Brady.
What they don’t need is another Mac Jones, the last quarterback they invested in with a first-round pick. Jones flamed out in three seasons largely because he didn’t have any above-average physical tools. He’s not especially tall or sturdy for an NFL player (6-3, 214), didn’t have a big arm, and wasn’t fast. When the play broke down — and it did often the last two years — Jones didn’t have the tools to make something out of nothing.
This year’s draft appears to have at least six quality quarterback prospects who could go in the first round. The Patriots likely won’t have a shot at Caleb Williams, who is close to a lock to go No. 1 to the Bears. Washington will have the next crack at No. 2.
If the Patriots are lucky, North Carolina’s Drake Maye will fall to them at No. 3. He checks all the right boxes.
He’s got ideal size — 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds. He’s an “easy, natural thrower with minimal effort,” with an “explosive arm,” according to the scouting report from NFL Films’ Greg Cosell. Maye has the athleticism to throw on the run and make plays with his feet, rushing for 1,147 yards and 16 touchdowns the last two years at North Carolina.
“The ability, the size, the arm strength, the athleticism, the play-making stuff, it’s all there,” said NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah, who has Maye going No. 2 to Washington in his mock drafts.
For Patriots receiver Kendrick Bourne, appearing last week on James White’s
“The Money Down” podcast, Maye reminds him of a rival quarterback from Western New York.
“They’ve been giving him the Josh Allen comparison,” Bourne said. “He got that build. He got that structure to handle — I thought he was like 6-foot-2, maybe 200. Nah, they say he 6-foot-4, 225, like, big dog. He got something to him.”
Maye, 21, is by no means a perfect prospect. His stats dipped across the board from 2022 to 2023. Cosell wrote that Maye “lacks a refined sense of timing anticipation.” Maye can be scattershot with his throws, prompting NBC’s Chris Simms to say, “when the pocket’s clean, one of every four balls hits the target.”
NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein called Maye a “challenging evaluation with top-flight measurables and tools but inconsistencies that create a lower floor,” and gave Maye a draft grade of 6.5, representing “boom or bust.”
“Drake Maye is the kind of player that will get you fired,” former ESPN analyst Merrill Hoge recently said on WCCO-AM in Minneapolis.
Even Mayo hinted that Maye’s floor may be lower than other top QB prospects.
“I know a lot of people look at the ceiling, but you also got to kind of see how low is the floor,” Mayo said at the NFL owners meetings. “And I would say that a guy like Drake Maye, he has a lot of room to grow.”
Of course, Patrick Mahomes had many of the same negatives in the 2017 pre-draft process, receiving an even lower grade of 6.3 from Zierlein. (“Will eventually be plus starter.”) Allen had extreme accuracy and mechanical issues coming out of college that continued into his first two NFL seasons.
But surrounded by good coaching and good systems, both players developed into superstars.
When you’re desperate for a quarterback like the Patriots are, you hope Maye’s negatives are fixable and you roll the dice. Maye’s positives are things that can’t be taught, or easily found.
“There are some flaws to work out in Maye’s game (the biggest being inconsistent and at times erratic ball placement which could well be a problem), but there is no question he possesses the physical traits, with the natural pocket feel, in addition to higher-level athleticism to develop into a quality NFL QB with a chance to be one of the best,” Cosell wrote.
Of the other four quarterbacks beyond Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels is the most intriguing because of his phenomenal athleticism and dual-threat abilities. But he comes with a “buyer beware” tag for the Patriots due to a slender 210-pound frame and “arm strength on the average to slightly above scale,” per Cosell, that may not be ideal for cold-weather games.
Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy is gaining a lot of buzz and seems to be shooting up draft boards. While McCarthy just won a national championship and expertly ran a pro-style offense under Jim Harbaugh, he’s also just 6-2 and 219 pounds and doesn’t have any elite traits.
“Good athlete, not dynamic,” writes Cosell. “Doesn’t have a naturally strong arm. . . . Not an off-platform thrower . . . . His tape in college showed an efficient system quarterback lacking any special throwing or athletic traits.”
McCarthy might thrive in the NFL, but he sounds like Mac Jones 2.0. The Patriots can’t make the same gamble twice.
Then there’s Oregon’s Bo Nix, who stands 6-1 and 218 pounds with “enough,” “average” arm strength. Pass.
Finally, there’s Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., an intriguing prospect with “strong arm talent with precise ball placement at all three levels,” per Cosell. But Penix only stands 6-2 and 216 pounds, never runs (35 carries for 8 yards in 2023), and has twice torn his ACL. Doesn’t sound like someone the Patriots want to bet their franchise on for three years.
Of course, size doesn’t always equal success for an NFL quarterback. Christian Hackenberg was 6-4 and 225 pounds, but couldn’t improve his mechanics or figure out NFL defenses. Same with 6-5, 235pound Ryan Leaf.
But the Patriots need a big, strapping quarterback. Maye checks the most boxes. The Patriots should race to the podium if he falls to them at No. 3.