Arizona’s abortion ruling could upend 2024 races
State lawmakers, governor asked to find solution
A near-total abortion ban slated to go into effect in the coming weeks in Arizona is expected to have a seismic impact on the politics of the battleground state, testing the limits of Republican support for abortion restrictions and putting the issue front and center in November’s election.
Arizona’s conservative Supreme Court on Tuesday revived a near-total ban on abortion, invoking an 1864 law that forbids the procedure except to save a mother’s life and punishes providers with prison time. The decision supersedes Arizona’s previous rule, which permitted abortions up to 15 weeks.
Arizonans are poised to consider the issue in November, now that the groups working to amend the state’s constitution to enshrine abortion rights — which include the ACLU of Arizona and Planned Parenthood Advocates of Arizona — say they have enough signatures to establish a ballot measure, according to The Arizona Republic.
Meanwhile, Republicans in the state are asking Governor Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, and Arizona’s Republican-led Legislature to find a solution.
The developments in Arizona are part of a wave of state actions to reckon with the future of access to reproductive care after the US Supreme Court, with a conservative majority installed during Donald Trump’s presidency, overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. While several states enacted abortion restrictions as a result of overturning Roe, protecting access to reproductive care has broadly been a winning issue for Democratic candidates and for ballot measures that protect abortion access in elections since the 2022 ruling.
As a battleground state, there is a lot on the line in Arizona’s looming elections. President Biden is running for reelection after winning the state in 2020 by fewer than 11,000 votes, and the race for a Senate seat in the state could prove crucial in determining which party controls the body next year. The balance of the State House is at stake this election cycle, too, with Republicans holding a one-vote majority in each chamber.
On Wednesday, the Legislature devolved into shouts of “Shame! Shame!” as Republican lawmakers quickly shut down discussion on a proposed repeal of the 1864 law.
Lawmaker had convened as pressure mounted from Democrats and some Republicans, including Trump, for them to intervene. House Democrats and at least one Republican tried to open discussion on a repeal of the ban. GOP leaders cut it off twice and quickly adjourned for the week. Outraged Democrats erupted in finger-waving chants of “Shame! Shame!”
Trump said the Arizona court decision went too far and called on state lawmakers to change it even as he defended the Supreme Court's ruling overturning of Roe v. Wade.
“It’s all about states’ rights,” he told supporters and journalists. “It’ll be straightened out.”
He also said he would not sign a national abortion ban if he were elected president.
Polls show abortion is a motivating issue for Arizona voters.
An October New York TimesSiena College poll found that 59 percent of Arizona registered voters said abortion should be mostly or always legal; 34 percent said it should be mostly or always illegal. A March Fox News poll also found 39 percent of Arizona voters said abortion would be extremely important in deciding their vote for president, with another 32 percent saying it would be very important. Voters who supported Biden in 2020 were nearly twice as likely to say the issue would be extremely important in their vote, 51 percent to 27 percent.
In the hours following Arizona’s abortion decision, Republicans who previously were vocal advocates of restricting abortion found themselves in an unfamiliar position: condemning a change that will restrict reproductive care in their state.
Kari Lake — the staunch ally of Trump running in one of the most closely watched Senate races this cycle — called the ruling “out of step with Arizonans.”
She had once expressed support for the 1864 law but has since moderated her stance.