Celtics’ first-round foe could be the bigger threat
The Celtics’ playoff path isn’t all that much clearer on the day after the regular season than it was on Sunday. There are four teams that could potentially take the floor at TD Garden on Sunday afternoon.
All four of those teams will be challenges, but it’s quite apparent the seventh-seeded Philadelphia 76ers and eighth-seeded Miami Heat present the biggest threats.
The winner of the 76ers-Heat game on Wednesday plays the New York Knicks in what will be an intriguing series. The loser will host the winner of the Atlanta Hawks-Chicago Bulls playin matchup, and that winner will head to Boston.
The 76ers and Heat are no normal seventh and eighth seeds, respectively. Philadelphia may be one of the most feared teams in the Eastern Conference because of the return of Joel Embiid from knee surgery, and they ended the season on an eight-game win streak.
Embiid is not 100 percent, but he’s good enough to dominate games. Tyrese Maxey just completed an AllStar season at guard, while the 76ers added longtime Celtics nemesis Kyle Lowry along with journeyman Kelly Oubre, who has been a key contributor.
Philadelphia lacks the overall talent to beat the Celtics in a seven-game series, but not if Boston slips early in the series or Embiid turns into the dominant force that has made him a top-tier center. The Celtics beat Philadelphia three times this season, but two of those victories were without Embiid and the teams last played in February.
The 76ers host Miami and enter Wednesday as 4½-point favorites. The Celtics have had their way with the 76ers over recent years, but that doesn’t mean they would relish a matchup with Embiid. The difference between the teams this season in comparison to their seven-game conference semifinal series in 2023 is Boston’s additions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday.
The sample size of the Embiid-Porzingis matchup is limited. They faced off only once this season, the team’s first meeting, when Porzingis scored 29 points but Philadelphia won, 106-103. The Celtics went back to Philadelphia a week later with Porzingis sitting out with a sore knee and won, 117-107, with Al Horford starting at center. Embiid missed the final two meetings.
The last time the Celtics faced the Heat in the playoffs, Miami pulled off a stunning seven-game series win as the eighth seed, foiling Boston’s chances of a second consecutive NBA Finals appearance. That series left a scar with the Celtics, who retooled their roster in preparation for a potential rematch.
If Miami loses to the 76ers, it would have to beat the Bulls to get to the Celtics. The fascinating question about the Heat is whether they are comparable to the team that made that NBA Finals run. Record wise, they are two games better this season, but they have dealt with a plethora of injuries throughout the season and a handful of puzzling losses.
Last season, the Heat finished last in the NBA in scoring at 109.5 points per game and 27th in 3-point shooting at 34.4 percent. This year, they finished 26th in scoring and 12th in 3-point percentage. The major difference between last year’s regular season Heat and playoff Heat was 3-point defense.
Miami was 21st in the NBA in opposing 3-point percentage (36.7 percent). The Celtics shot 30.6 percent in the seven-game series. This year, the Heat finished fifth in opposing 3-point percentage (35.3). The Celtics finished second in 3-point shooting (38.8).
While the Celtics lost the first three games of the Miami series, they were a couple of 3-pointers made from taking two of those games. The question is whether the additions of Porzingis, who flourished against Miami in the regular season, and Holiday will make this an easier series.
The Celtics won all three meetings against the Heat this season, averaging 124 points and shooting 53.5 percent from the field. The Boston defense held Miami to 109 points and 40 percent shooting in the three games. Miami was without Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Terry Rozier in at least one of those three matchups.
The difference in those meetings was the production of Porzingis, who broke Miami’s zone defense with his playmaking at the top of the key. He averaged 20.3 points and shot 57.1 percent in the three meetings. It’s safe to say the Celtics are better prepared for whatever the Heat have to offer in a potential series, but that doesn’t mean it will be easy.
What’s more, if the Celtics face Philadelphia or Miami, it may be a more difficult series than their potential second-round matchup against the winner of the Magic-Cavaliers series. And there is also the possibility that the Hawks or Bulls could win consecutive games to nab the eighth seed. The Bulls finished the season playing their best basketball, but would pose less of a threat than the 76ers and Heat.
Atlanta beat the Celtics twice last month without Trae Young, who is now back, but the Hawks have been decimated with injuries and have yet to display the consistency to win consecutive games or give the No. 1 seed a competitive series.