Cease-fire in the balance, Netanyahu tries to keep power
BeRLiN — Benjamin Netanyahu, israel’s prime minister, is known as a man who likes to play for time. But he may not be able to do that much longer.
Domestically, his coalition partners on the far right threaten to break up the government if he agrees to a cease-fire and does not try to clear Hamas out of Rafah.
militarily, the strategic logic is to complete the dismantling of Hamas by taking Rafah and controlling the border with egypt. But diplomatically, his allies, especially the United States, are pushing him to agree on a cease-fire.
So Netanyahu is now negotiating and maneuvering on several fronts at once, all of which have a significant effect on the conduct of the war and his own future as prime minister.
His recent warnings to palestinians in parts of Rafah to move to areas israel has designated as safe, followed late monday night by the israeli military’s seizure of the gaza side of the egyptian border, signaled that he would continue to prioritize israel’s security interests. more important, israel’s war Cabinet, which includes senior opposition figures, backed those decisions.
the seizure of the Rafah crossing to egypt, to try to complete israel’s security control of gaza’s borders, has, for now, avoided a large-scale and contentious military operation in Rafah itself, which is filled with displaced civilians. it may signal that israel is preparing at long last to agree to at least a temporary cease-fire in gaza, even as the outcome of those negotiations remains uncer- tain.
“Netanyahu is being pulled in various directions,” with pressure mounting on him to respond, said Daniel kurtzer, a former US ambassador to israel now at princeton University.
Foremost is Netanyahu’s desire to avoid new elections, which could mean loss of power and a renewal of the various court cases against him. “political survival always ranks first in Netanyahu’s calculations,” kurtzer said.
Netanyahu is desperate to hold together his governing coalition, which has 64 seats in the 120-seat knesset, or parliament, a narrow majority.
His far-right partners, itamar Ben-gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, together control 14 seats, and they have vowed to leave the government if the prime minister makes too many concessions and agrees to a cease-fire in gaza, leaving Hamas to claim victory.
gadi eisenkot, a former general and opposition member of the war Cabinet, accused the two men of “political blackmail” and of standing in the way of the return of at least some hostages.
even a modest operation in Rafah “fits several of Netanyahu’s goals simultaneously,” said Natan Sachs, director of the Center for middle east policy at the Brookings institution.
Like many israeli officials, including those who want a cease-fire deal now, Sachs said, “Netanyahu genuinely believes an operation in Rafah is central to israel’s overall goals — not merely in going after the remaining Hamas forces, but in cutting off their ability to resupply via smuggling through the egyptian border.”
Still, after Hamas’s most recent concessions, coupled with the israeli military moves to control the egyptian border, a cease-fire deal seems much more possible than before — perhaps even desirable for Netanyahu.