Mexico prepares for a potential Trump win as own election nears
Officials speak to campaign about tariffs, more
mEXIcO cItY — they’re studying his interviews, bracing for mass deportations, and preparing policy proposals to bring to the negotiating table.
As mexico heads toward its presidential election next month, government officials and campaign aides are also girding for a different vote: one in the United States that could return Donald trump to the presidency.
the last time trump took office, his win surprised many of the United States’ allies, and his threat-filled diplomacy forced them to adapt on the go. Now, they have time to anticipate how trump’s victory would transform relations that President Biden has tried to normalize — and they’re furiously preparing for an upheaval.
For some, the memory of negotiating with trump the last time he was in office, when he used extreme threats against mexico, looms large.
What it took to reach a deal with trump’s team back then? “time, patience, cold blood,” former mexican foreign minister marcelo Ebrard said in an interview. “You can win if you understand this. It’s not easy.”
In mexico, officials say that working with trump could be even harder this time around. the former president has promised “the largest deportation operation in American history,” floated the idea of 100 percent tariffs on chinese cars made in mexico, and vowed to deploy US Special Forces to, as he put it, “wage war on the cartels.”
Behind the scenes, the mexican government is talking to people close to the trump campaign about proposals such as the former president’s threat of a “universal tariff ” on all imported goods, and working to resolve trade disagreements before the US election, according to a senior mexican official who was not authorized to speak publicly.
the goal, the official said, is to leave the future mexican administration as equipped as possible to engage with trump.
mexican President Andrés manuel López Obrador forged a close working relationship with trump in the early years of his administration, despite trump’s repeated threats to impose tariffs on mexico and make the country pay for a border wall.
But López Obrador is stepping down once his term ends after presidential elections in June, in which polls give a significant advantage to his protege, claudia Sheinbaum, former mayor of mexico city.
the unwritten rules of López Obrador’s relationship with trump were that mexico did as much as it could on migration, and the White House let him pursue his domestic priorities without meddling. that seemed to work for both men.
López Obrador has praised trump for respecting mexican sovereignty. trump, in turn, has called the mexican leader “a friend” and “a great president.”
But it’s unclear how trump would engage with either of the top two presidential candidates.
“With either President trump or President Biden, we’re going to have good relations,” Sheinbaum said in an interview. “We’re always going to defend mexico and mexicans in the US — and we want an equal relationship.”
Xóchitl gálvez, the top opposition candidate, said she, too, could work with either man as president.
“Obviously I would prefer to work with a respectful and courteous gentleman like Joe Biden,” gálvez told the New York times. “But in my professional and political life, I have dealt with all types of masculinity,” she said. “It wouldn’t be the first time I confronted a character with complicated masculinity, so I could work perfectly well with trump.”
campaign aides are drawing up plans for either outcome.
“I’m not worried, but we’re going to be prepared,” said Juan Ramón de la Fuente, a member of Sheinbaum’s team, referring to a potential trump win. “We are preparing for both scenarios.”
On migration, “we need to be more effective in decreasing irregular crossings,” said de la Fuente, who recently served as mexico’s ambassador to the United Nations and is seen as a potential pick for foreign minister in a possible Sheinbaum administration.
But he also pointed out that US laws work as “a not very healthy incentive” that helps drive migration “because the moment you touch the land, you are a candidate for asylum.”
Some officials in mexico see the country as having more leverage in its dealings with the United States than in the past.