A return to normal
With a (small) crowd allowed back at Pimlico, here’s what to watch for
As the world returns, haltingly, to familiar rituals, the 146th Preakness Stakes will do the same.
With the crowd at Pimlico Race Course limited to 10,000 and no raucous infield party, this will not be the Preakness we grew up with, but it will be a step in that direction, with a familiar May date, some patrons in the stands and a Triple Crown bid hanging in the balance.
If television ratings and betting totals from the Kentucky Derby are any indication, racing fans were eager to have the Triple Crown back in its familiar place on the calendar. Medina Spirit added to that excitement with his surprise wire-to-wire victory for trainer Bob Baffert.
In the Preakness, this “tough little horse,” as Baffert calls him, will face the usual blend of Derby rematches and fresh challengers. As we weigh Medina Spirit’s chances at taking the second leg of a potential Triple Crown, here are some stories to watch:
Can Medina Spirit stay ahead of that clock ticking toward midnight?
Baffert wasted little time invoking Cinderella as he described his own surprise with Medina Spirit’s performance in the Derby. He admired the colt’s grit and consistency, but a runner-up finish in the Santa Anita Derby left him wondering
if Medina Spirit faced an insurmountable talent deficit against the best in this year’s 3-year-old class. Baffert had already pulled two more hyped contenders, Life is Good and Concert Tour, off the Derby trail, and some skeptics viewed his lone remaining entry as the runt of the litter.
Well, that runt refused to be passed after jockey John Velazquez let him run to the lead at Churchill Downs. Mandaloun, Hot Rod Charlie and Essential Quality took their shots, but he would not yield.
We know Medina Spirit is a good bet to give his best again at Pimlico Race Course. The former $1,000 yearling has run five times this year and not finished worse than second. Baffert-trained horses have tended to hold their form from Derby to Preakness; of his previous six Derby champions, five won at Pimlico and the other finished second.
Can Velazquez again control the race from the lead? Medina Spirit didn’t have it easy in the Derby; Mandaloun ran with him the whole way. But no one pushed him to run uncomfortable fractions early, perhaps because no one viewed him as the greatest threat in the field. That will not be the case in the Preakness, where he’ll be an obvious target.
With so many Derby runners skipping the race, is this a weak field?
When trainer Brad Cox pulled Mandaloun from Preakness consideration Thursday, he left the field bereft of all three horses that pushed Medina Spirit down the stretch at the Derby.
Cox had already said Derby favorite and fourth-place finisher Essential Quality would not run at Pimlico Race Course. Trainer Doug O’Neill had pulled third-place finisher Hot Rod Charlie from consideration. So Mandaloun, who stalked Medina Spirit stride for stride before falling a half-length short, stood out as the most exciting rematch possibility. Instead, Cox said he’ll prepare the Derby runner-up for other Grade 1 stakes late in the year.
Perhaps that’s what’s best for his horse, but it sure is a bummer for a Preakness field that’s now light on Derby carry-overs.
Sixth-place finisher Midnight Bourbon is the top contender lining up to take another shot at Medina Spirit. He started awkwardly in the Derby but hung on to finish sixth for trainer Steve Asmussen, who’s won the Preakness twice in his Hall of Fame career. Midnight Bourbon came out of the Derby full of energy despite his inefficient trip. He had never finished worse than third in seven previous career starts; like Medina Spirit, he can be counted on to battle. He’ll be ridden by the top jockey in the sport, Irad Ortiz Jr., after Mike Smith decided to ride Concert Tour instead.
Keepmeinmind, meanwhile, came flying from the back of the pack to finish seventh in the Derby. No horse was running faster at the end, so it’s fair to wonder if a hotter pace early in the Preakness could position the Robertino Diodorotrained colt for an upset.
That’s it for Derby contenders, leaving us with a projected nine- or 10-horse field reminiscent of the one that challenged Justify in 2018.
Will Medina Spirit’s stiffest challenge come from stablemate Concert Tour?
Before his flat third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, Concert Tour was viewed as a more serious Derby contender than Medina Spirit. He was inexperienced, with just three starts heading into his final Derby prep, but seemed poised for another big performance coming off his March 13 victory in the Rebel Stakes. His easy speed in that race reminded Baffert of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.
His effort in the Arkansas Derby was disappointing enough, however, that Baffert went back to the drawing board. “You get beat and you figure it out,” the Hall of Fame trainer said. “You learn more from your losses: what a horse likes, what he doesn’t like. Did I have him ready? I make notes and figure out what’s wrong.”
Owners Gary and Mary West did not feel confident bringing Concert Tour back for the Derby but saw enoughimprovementfromhistraining at Churchill Downs that a Preaknessrunseemedprudent.He’llenter the field as a fresh wild card. Is he the excitingcontenderfromMarchorthe disappointing also-ran from April?