How many current Orioles get moved at the deadline?
Ruiz: Three. Mancini and Jordan Lyles technically aren’t pending free agents, with Mancini having a mutual option for 2023 and Lyles’ contract including a team option for next season. But Mancini has long been clear that option does little to change his status as a trade candidate, given the low likelihood both sides pick it up, and Lyles, who has backed up the innings-eater reputation he brought to Baltimore, is exactly the type of low-risk, backend starter contending teams love to add at the deadline. The third here could be any number of players, but I’ll just posit that Elias manages to sell high on one of Baltimore’s many well-performing relievers.
Kostka: It’s not out of the realm of possibility that three Orioles are moved at the deadline, and the loss of each would potentially alter the feelings inside the clubhouse: Mancini, Lyles and closer Jorge López could all conceivably be on the move.
On the back of López’s strong first half, which includes 17 saves and an All-Star nod, several contenders could shore up the back end of their bullpen with the 29-year-old’s 1.62 ERA. López is arbitration-eligible for the next two seasons, so Baltimore doesn’t need to move him; the team control makes him a longer-term asset. But the volatility of relievers might encourage a move. López’s value might never be higher than it is now.
Lyles has been everything the Orioles have asked for, in terms of his contributions on the mound and the impact he has in the clubhouse. Younger players follow his lead, and his ability to eat innings has been paramount for the pitching staff. He could improve the back half of a contender’s rotation at the deadline, though.
Mancini is expected to decline the player option on his contract for next season to elect free agency instead, leaving Baltimore in a position to maximize his value at the trade deadline. With nine homers and a .277 batting average, Mancini could be a vital addition for a contender at first base or designated hitter.
There’s more at play with Mancini, though, with his connection to the fan base. Of the three, he’s the only homegrown option, drafted in the eighth round in 2013. He missed the 2020 season as he battled colon cancer, beat it and then came back to the field better than ever. Bidding Mancini adieu has more layers than the business of baseball, but it could still be in the club’s best interest.
Schwartz: Two. Mancini and Lyles are the likely trade chips, but the return for López would be better than either player as he isn’t a free agent until after the 2024 season. The New York Mets are in need of a first baseman and have a relatively good pool of prospects, making them a logical candidate to land Mancini. Lyles could also go to any number of contenders who are looking for an innings eater.
What was the most important development of the Orioles’ first half ?
Ruiz: The bevy of unexpected performances on the pitching side are certainly welcome, but in terms of developments that carry meaning for the future, I’ll go with the arrival of some dude named Adley Rutschman. He certainly hasn’t lived up to the astronomical expectations placed upon him — who could? — but this team has clearly had a different energy to it since his promotion, going 30-21 with the former top prospect on the roster. More notably, his arrival signaled to fans that the rebuild is beginning to pay dividends, and other symbols of that are on their way, too.
Kostka: The breakout of right-hander Tyler Wells as a starter was the most important development of the Orioles’ first half, building confidence for what he can do next year and beyond as part of the rotation. With lefthander John Means expected to return at some point next season from Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery and prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall nearing the majors, Wells has solidified his position in that up-and-coming rotation.
Wells served as the closer last year, and he still faces an innings limit this season. The reins should be looser for him in 2023, however.
Schwartz: Pitching. This was a major question mark entering the season and became an even bigger one after Means was lost for the season. But the bullpen has been one of the best in baseball, and the rotation has stolen some games it never would’ve during the first few years of the rebuild.
Cionel Pérez was quietly claimed on waivers in November after going 1-2 with a 6.38 ERA last season with the Cincinnati Reds. In 37 games out of the bullpen with the Orioles, his ERA is 1.45. López’s is nearly as good, even after blowing a few saves earlier this month. Wells has been a revelation in his first year in the rotation with a 3.38 ERA in 85 innings. Even midseason waiver claim Austin Voth has found his stride after struggling in Washington with a 3.42 ERA in Baltimore.
Whether it’s analytics or something else, the Orioles’ pitching staff has finally turned a corner after recording a 5.84 team ERA — by far the worst in baseball — just a year ago.