GOP’s ‘red wave’ drained by increased polarization

Republican gubernatorial candidate Dan Cox sent a message to supporters in bold red lettering.

“Go vote now by 8 PM,” his campaign said in a blast email on Election Day. “Red wave is now.”

But the Republican surge never materialized nationally. Democratic candidates for state and federal offices in other states fared substantially better than in typical midterm elections.

And it barely registered Tuesday in Maryland, a decidedly Democratic state in which recent elections have seen the bluest counties get bluer and the reddest counties become deeper red. Increased tribalism — the sense that voters are dug into their positions and parties — keeps either party from forming a wave because its momentum disperses when it crosses into rival territory.

Consider the gubernatorial election, in which Cox — a right-wing supporter of former President Donald Trump who was shunned by more moderate Republican Gov. Larry Hogan — captured just 36% of the statewide vote. He won 15 of 23 counties, many by large margins, according to unofficial returns from the State Board of Elections.

“What you are seeing reflects the continued polarization of politics in Maryland and around the country,” said University of Baltimore professor John Willis, a secretary of state in the administration of Democratic Gov. Parris Glendening. “In the 1880s, Baltimore City and Carroll County voted identically. Now, they are 50 or 60 points apart.”

Wes Moore, the Democratic governor-elect, got 88% of the vote in Baltimore City and 38% in Carroll County.

An effective wave — one that sweeps in candidates up and down the ballot — needs not only enthusiasm from the base, but support from independents and people registered with the opposite party. Hogan, who is wrapping up his second term and couldn’t run again Tuesday due to term limits, stitched together in 2014 and 2018 blocs of Republicans, unaffiliated voters and crossover Democrats in Maryland, where Democrats have a 2-1 voter registration advantage.

This year, most voters viewed Cox and Republican attorney general candidate Michael Peroutka as too extreme, analysts said. Peroutka, who lost overwhelmingly to U.S. Rep. Anthony Brown, opposes same-sex marriage and said he would enforce “God’s law.” He told supporters Thursday he didn’t plan to concede.

Republicans “chose to nominate candidates that did not align with voters who are Democrats and independents, and they were rejected,” said Roger E. Hartley, dean of the University of Baltimore’s College of Public Affairs. “If you’re a Republican looking for a red wave, [you] were missing the opportunity that Gov. Hogan gave the state and Republicans for eight years.”

Republican hopes for a wave were based on voters’ concerns about the economy, and dissatisfaction with Democratic President Joe Biden.

Doug Mayer, a longtime Hogan strategist, said he was left frustrated that the GOP missed a chance for important gains. Elections occurring in the middle of a presidential term typically end badly for the party in the White House. But not this year.

With votes still being counted, Democrats hoped to hang on to their U.S. Senate majority. They may lose control of the House, but were holding more seats than anticipated.

“What you saw in Maryland is, sadly, what you saw across the country — the red wave being watered down by lunatics,” Mayer said.

“Cox got few, if any, Democratic or independent votes. That causes a trickle-down on the rest of the ballot. The top of the ticket in states across the country dragged Republicans down,” he said.

The last midterm election — 2018 — saw high turnout in many states that helped Democrats rebuff Trump and gain the U.S. House majority. Turnout soared in Maryland, as well, four years ago.

“In 2018, there was this big backlash to Trump. And also in the gubernatorial race here, a lot of money was spent,” said David Karol, an associate professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland.

Hogan spent about $12 million in 2018 — including nearly $9 million on TV advertising. Democrat Ben Jealous spent about $3.8 million. In 2022, Moore and running mate Aruna Miller spent over $7.5 million after winning the primary, as of the latest campaign finance reports. Cox and running mate Gordana Schifanelli spent $532,000.

The voter participation figures for the 2022 general election in Maryland were still being calculated, as mail-in votes continued to be counted. But Karol and others said the state’s turnout figures seem to have dropped off from 2018’s historic highs.

“In Maryland, there was no surge in Republican turnout compared to 2018,” Willis said.

He said lack of competition in many races may have kept people from voting.

A number of relatively high-turnout counties on Tuesday — such as Kent, Queen Anne’s and Talbot — are in the Eastern Shore district of U.S. Rep. Andy Harris, according to preliminary state figures.

Harris, a six-term Republican loyal to Trump, got 57% of the vote in defeating Democrat Heather Mizeur, a well-funded former state delegate and 2014 gubernatorial candidate.

“He had a challenge and he worked a little harder [than in previous elections] to get his voters out,” Hartley said.

Like many Democrats nationwide, Mizeur sought to tap into voter concerns about a national erosion of access to abortion. A U.S. Supreme Court ruling in June overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that had protected the right to an abortion under the U.S. Constitution.

She sought to assemble a coalition of Democratic, unaffiliated and moderate Republican voters in a district in which Republicans have a solid voter registration advantage. But she was stymied by the high degree of party-line voting, said Flavio Hickel Jr., an assistant political science professor at Washington College in Chestertown.

“There is a great deal of tribalism/polarization happening in the district,” Hickel said.

In Tuesday’s U.S. Senate race, Republican challenger Chris Chaffee won 16 counties against incumbent Democrat Chris Van Hollen, despite being littleknown and losing elections for the House in 2014 and the Senate in 2016 and 2018. Chaffee got 32% of the vote to Van Hollen’s 62% on Tuesday.

“Having the ‘R’ in front of his name in a climate in which control of the Senate is an issue, I think that makes a huge impact,” Hickel said.

Willis, who studies polarization, says there are effectively two Marylands — Democratic and Republican — that have grown politically further apart. Republicans dominate the Western Maryland counties of Allegany, Garrett and Washington, as well as most of the Eastern Shore. Democrats control Baltimore City, the large Washington suburbs of Montgomery and Prince George’s counties and, increasingly, the more distant suburbs, such as Howard and Charles counties.

Although there was no wave, Republicans hoped to make inroads in local races.

Republican Jessica Haire is in a close race in her bid to unseat Democratic Anne Arundel County Executive Steuart Pittman. In Frederick County, it was too close Friday to call Republican state Sen. Michael Hough’s attempt to flip the county executive seat from blue to red.

All of Maryland’s Democratic congressmen seeking reelection prevailed, although it was not until late in the week that U.S. Rep. David Trone pulled ahead in the sprawling 6th Congressional District, stretching from Montgomery County to Western Maryland. Conservative state Del. Neil Parrott led Trone in the Election Day returns, but the mail-in ballot count put Trone in front.

Trone poured more than $12 million into the race, which was a rematch of 2020.

The 6th is the only congressional district in the state almost evenly divided between Democratic and Republican voters.

“We always knew this race was going to be close,” Trone said on Election Day.