Questions abound on whether Ukraine can sustain its fight against Russia

KYIV, Ukraine — The future looks bleak for warweary Ukraine: It is beset by shortages in soldiers and ammunition, as well as doubts about the supply of Western aid. Ukrainian forces also face a Russian enemy that has recently seized the initiative on the battlefield.

As the war enters its third year, here is an overview of the situation on the ground, the challenges that lay ahead and some of the potential consequences if Ukraine does not acquire the people, ammunition and assistance it needs to sustain the fight.

Q: What is the state of play?

A:

“As things stand, neither side has won. Neither side has lost. Neither side is anywhere near giving up. And both sides have pretty much exhausted the manpower and equipment that they started the war with,” said Gen. Richard Barrons, a British military officer who is co-chair of a defense consultancy.

Q: How many people have been killed?

A:

Both Russia and Ukraine have sought to keep casualty figures under wraps.

Few details about Ukrainian military deaths have emerged since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. But it’s clear that tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been killed.

In 2023, the first independent statistical analysis of Russia’s war dead concluded that nearly 50,000 Russian men had died in the war.

Q: What happens if Ukraine can’t find more troops? A:

Without more soldiers, Ukraine’s defensive lines will be overstretched and more vulnerable to Russian attacks, especially if Moscow launches intense multipronged assaults along the 620-mile front line.

The Ukrainian military has an average personnel shortage of 25% across brigades, according to lawmakers.

Military commanders are unable to give their soldiers enough rest, and Russia has recently increased the tempo of attacks. As a result, soldiers are tired — and more easily injured — exacerbating the effects of the shortage.

Ukraine’s military command has said 450,000 to 500,000 additional recruits are needed for the next phase of the war. Even if Ukraine succeeds in mobilizing that number, which is unlikely, it still would not be able to match the manpower of Russia, which has more than three times Ukraine’s population.

Q: What about weapons and ammunition?

A:

If ammunition shortages continue, they will jeopardize Ukraine’s ability to hold territory and keep soldiers alive. Military leaders appear to be rationing shells.