Georgia governor’s race: GOP nail-biting time
If Republicans weren’t worried about the Georgia governor’s race before this week, they had better worry now and go into high gear figuring how GOP nominee Brian Kemp can overtake Democrat progressive/liberal Stacey Abrams in little more than a month before the Nov. 6 election.
The latest poll showed Abrams had 48 percent to Kemp’s 42 percent with Libertarian Ted Metz at 3 percent and undecided at 7 percent (margin of error 4.1 percent). This poll of 603 likely voters was taken Sept. 17 and 20 by Washington-based Democratic polling firm GarinHart-yang for the Abrams campaign — not to be necessarily discounted for that reason; the firm has a record of numerous successful surveys and campaigns.
The results reflect a big jump by Abrams over an AJC poll released two weeks earlier that had the candidates in a dead heat at 45 percent with Metz at 2 percent and 7.6 percent undecided. Garin-hart-yang attributed Abrams’ gain to tightening the race among men — quite surprisingly for this longtime GOP state — with her at 45 percent versus Kemp’s 47 percent, a significant change from the previous AJC finding of 39 percent for Abrams and 53 percent for Kemp among men. Remarkably for a once thoroughly red state, Abrams maintained a double-digit lead among women with 52 percent versus Kemp’s 41 percent, compared to the previous poll’s 50-39 split favoring Abrams.
Another worry for Republicans is the poll’s finding that Abrams “has more intense support than Kemp” and leads 51 percent to 43 percent among respondents saying they are certain to vote. The obvious point is made that “voter intensity/turnout is a critical ingredient of winning midterm elections.” Despite the Kemp campaign’s attack ads, Abrams seems Teflon-like, “while ironically Kemp is the polarizing candidate.” Abrams’ positive rating was 43 percent and her negative 29 percent versus Kemp’s 37 percent positive and 34 percent negative, not good.
Kemp gets it. At a Columbus rally this week, he told supporters: “We have got to work harder than we ever have because this is a national race. Literally the socialists — the socialists believe it or not from California — billionaires, are throwing millions and millions of dollars to my opponent.”
Kemp’s TV ads attack Abrams as radi- cal and “too extreme for Georgia,” charging that she “rejected legislation to keep child predators away from our kids” and “even voted against a bill to ban sex offenders from taking photos of minors without consent,” no details given. Kemp also has targeted Abrams’ for loaning her campaign $50,000 while owing that much in federal taxes.
Abrams keeps pushing her platform instead of directly attacking Kemp. At an event in Plains with former President Jimmy Carter, Abrams rolled out her “affordable health care plan,” calling for expanding Medicaid to keep rural hospitals open and supporting tele-health. As for attacks on Kemp, even without them, he has issues to be concerned about, notably a lawsuit by a north Georgia investment company alleging that he defaulted on a $500,000 loan guaranteed by him for an agricultural business in which he invested. This was used against Kemp by Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle in the primary and runoff, but now a deposition by Kemp in the case in July has surfaced and could hurt his favorable rating even more. In an investigative report, the Atlanta newspaper said Kemp answered questions 91 times by saying he didn’t recall, didn’t know or gave “some variation” of those replies, not good for building up his positive rating with critical undecided voters.
Clearly, this Georgia race is of compelling interest across the country. Abrams is a big draw for national Democrats as potentially the first black woman governor in the nation. She’s been endorsed by Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, among others. The polarizing Rep. Maxine Waters has been to Georgia to campaign for Abrams, and former VP Joe Biden plans to be here next month, postponing a Thursday appearance to avoid losing attention to the ongoing Brett Kavanaugh brouhaha in Washington. Kemp will get a boost from Vice President Pence at a “victory dinner” Oct. 11 in Atlanta, his second trip here for Kemp, who has solid backing from President Trump.
Abrams and Kemp will meet in two televised debates Oct. 23 and Nov. 4. The debates could well determine how the undecided voters break and how this election turns out. As incredible as it seemed a few months ago, the question now is: can Republicans keep Georgia from turning blue?
Contact Don Mckee at 9613@aol.com.