Syria peace talks hinge on resolving Assad’s future

VIENNA — The success or failure of the Syrian peace talks this week is tied to the fate of one man who’s not even at the table: President Bashar Assad.

Neither Assad nor any of his representatives are in Vienna, where U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and senior diplomats from almost 20 other countries began negotiations on Thursday. But his future is at the heart of all the talks.

The broad group of governments — an unprecedented collection of countries on the Syria issue — is looking for a plan that might convince Syria’s government and its Westernbacked rebels to agree to a national cease-fire and start a long process of “political transition.”

Even bitter foes Iran and Saudi Arabia will be sitting at one table along with their powerful partners, Russia and the United States. That reflects the urgency all parties say they’re attaching to finding a peace formula. It’s mostly about Assad. Since the start of Syria’s unrest four years ago, his future has been a stumbling block to all efforts aimed at ending the fighting. President Barack Obama demanded that Assad leave power in 2011. Russia resisted the push by blocking attempts at the United Nations to pressure the Syrian leader and insisting that any new government only be established by mutual consent of both the government and the opposition.

That essentially gave Assad veto power over his own wouldbe replacements.

The United States and its Arab and European allies have since tempered their calls, suggesting that Assad can remain in office for months as part of the transition if he agrees to resign at the end of the process. But even that softened demand has been too much for Russia and Iran, who are both engaged militarily alongside Assad’s forces, fighting rebels supported by the Saudis and the Americans. And neither of the Syrian sides has suggested they would support such a plan.

In Vienna, Kerry is being joined by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and counterparts from other nations, all hoping to get past disagreements that have held back international mediation efforts over the conflict’s 41⁄ years.

More than 250,000 people have been killed and more than 11 million people — half the country’s population — have been uprooted from their homes. The war has led to the rise of the Islamic State and sparked a refugee crisis that has unnerved much of Europe.

“We’ve a lot of very important meetings. We’ll see what happens,” Kerry said as he kicked off his first session, with Austrian Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz. Kerry then met with the U.N. envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, his key counterpart in a seven-nation nuclear deal wrapped up in July.

He later met with the foreign ministers of Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey before bigger talks today.