Departure of so many lawmakers is trending

WASHINGTON — When Rep. Pat Tiberi announced last month that he would resign his seat in Congress at the end of January, he became one of 41 U.S. House members to announce they were resigning, retiring or seeking other office.

The figure represents 9 percent of all U.S. House members. But given that it’s

year one of a two-year term in Congress, it’s a figure that nonetheless has either alarmed or pleased those with a stake in the makeup of the next Congress.

“History tells us that there are going to be more retirements,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections. “The question is what type of districts are they leaving behind and does that give the Democrats more opportunities to take over.”

For Republicans, it’s slightly worrisome: Many of the districts are considered safe, but it’s easier for a Democrat to win an open seat than to win one with a Republican incumbent. Of those who are leaving or have left, 29 are Republicans. Twelve are Democrats.

Gonzales did a study of the announced retirements — technically, Tiberi, R–Genoa Township, resigned, because he will leave Congress before his term is out to take a job at the Ohio Business Roundtable — and found that, on average, 22 members retire per cycle.

2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18

Currently, 15 lawmakers have announced their retirements. With a little less than a year until Election Day 2018, that figure doesn’t bode well, he said.

After the 2015-16 session of Congress, 25 lawmakers announced they would retire. Before that, the highest figure was in 1995-96, when 33 lawmakers retired. The highest figure since 1973? The Congress of 199192, when 52 lawmakers retired. That was the year of the Bill Clinton-George H.W. Bush election.

Gonzales said he counts Tiberi as an anomaly among