Governor’s race will be unusually competitive

OThomas Suddes

hio Democrats and their gubernatorial candidate got some good news Wednesday: “The Ohio governor’s race is too close to call, with former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray, the Democrat, at 42 percent and State Attorney General Mike DeWine, the Republican, at 40 percent,” according to a Quinnipiac University Poll.

True, it’s early yet, way early. But still, the CordrayDeWine race for governor of Ohio is competitive. That has to be a happy turn for Democrats, who’ve only held the governor’s office in four of the past 28 years (Democrat Ted Strickland, for one term from 2007 to 2011). Cordray, unlike Strickland, has had Statehouse experience. Cordray was an Ohio House member, state treasurer and attorney general — until, that is, DeWine unseated him in 2010.

Still, what might be called Ohio’s “statescape” has changed since Cordray lost the attorney general’s office to DeWine. Ohio’s still a competitive state politically (it twice backed Barack Obama). But Ohio appears to be trending Republican. The Ohio votes Donald Trump won in what had been Democratic heartwood, such as Trumbull County (Warren), signaled that same-old same-old is over. That’d be challenge No. 1 for Cordray as Democratic governor: building consensus for his agenda.

Then there’s GOP domination of the General Assembly. True, gerrymandered (politically rigged) state Senate and Ohio House districts are part of the reason. But that’s not the whole story.

Republican rule of Ohio’s Senate (for 34 years now) appears to be the longest spell in which one party has run the Senate since the Civil War ended — maybe longer. Likewise Democrats have run the Ohio House for only two years (2009-10) in the past 24. Challenge No. 2 for Democrat Cordray if he becomes governor: He’ll need the help of Republican legislators to pass priority bills.

There are diligent, focused Democratic legislators. But being part of a legislative minority can be cozy. You aren’t responsible for governing; the majority party does that. All you have to do, as the member of a minority party caucus, is show up for committee hearings and floor votes, keep your nose clean — and collect a nice paycheck and sweet benefits. With all due respect for many committed Republicans, that’s how the House’s GOP caucus sometimes looked during the 22 years (1973-95) it was in the minority — till 1993, when future Speaker Jo Ann Davidson, a suburban Columbus Republican, grabbed the House GOP caucus by the scruff of the neck and got it winning. Today, this era’s Statehouse legislative minority — Democrats — looks pretty comfy.

So, come November, whether Democrat Cordray or Republican DeWine becomes Ohio’s governor, the state Senate will remain Republican — as Ohio’s House almost certainly will.

If Cordray becomes governor, Challenge No. 3 will be staffing. During Democrat Vern Riffe’s 1975-94 speakership, and when Democrats ran the Senate (via Northfield’s Oliver Ocasek and Youngstown’s Harry Meshel), Democratic legislative staff formed a farm team for Democrats who won statewide elected executive office. (And even during GOP Gov. James Rhodes’s tenure, Riffe seemed to have eyes in ears throughout the executive branch.) Republicans have been in power so long they have a deep pool of Statehouse talent. Democrats, long in exile, don’t. That’s why, not forgetting many capable appointees, Strickland’s administration seemed at times as if it weren’t taped down as securely as it might have been. Cordray & Co. needs to think about staffing now — not in November.

Cordray or DeWine will be sworn in Jan. 14. And by March 15, the governor must propose a 2019-21 budget, which amounts to a blueprint for his governorship. A budget, which can propose tax-law changes, customarily originates in the House. Say Cordray’s governor. His budget’s future would hinge on GOP Speaker Ryan Smith of Bidwell in Gallia County — or on Smith’s rival, exSpeaker Larry Householder of Perry County’s Glenford.

Challenge No. 4 for Democrat Cordray if he wins: Everyone in Ohio’s heard he’s a “Jeopardy!” champ. But how’s his (or Mike DeWine’s) poker game? Because, to provide Ohio with its next budget, political poker is what Cordray or DeWine will have to play in 2019 with Ryan Smith — or, maybe, with Larry Householder.