Left with the check
Soybeans are loaded into a grain cart during harvest in Wyanet, Ill., but they might not be sold. Some farmers are sending harvested crops straight to storage, hoping for a better payday later.
China’s 25 percent duties against American soy shipments is the divergence of price trends between the U.S. and rival exporters in South America.
Demand from China, which is looking for soybeans from everywhere but the U.S., has already driven up premiums for shipments from Brazil.
Now, as those exportable supplies start to run out, it’s Argentina’s turn in the spotlight. In the meantime, American prices tumbled, and in many areas, cash prices have fallen below where futures are trading.
• Sorghum: American farmers planted more than 6 million acres of sorghum this year. While that’s dwarfed by the roughly 89 million seeded with corn, it’s still a major U.S. crop and rings in with bigger acreage than rice or oats.
The market has become heavily dependent on shipments to China, and cash sorghum prices have tumbled at Midwest elevators and ports in the Gulf of Mexico in recent months because of the trade tensions.
• Alfalfa: The value of U.S.
hay exports reached about $1.5 billion last year, almost quadrupling over the previous two decades, as China became the main destination for the alfalfa variety.
The trade war is expected to push prices down 7.5 percent and could cut revenue for alfalfa producers by about $377 million, according to a report from the University of California Agricultural Issues Center in Davis.
• Cherries: Included in China’s $60 billion hit list announced last month were shipments of American fruits including apricots, peaches and cherries.
The U.S. exports about $13 billion of fruit and tree nuts annually, with about 15 percent of that going to China and Hong Kong, David Magana and Roland Fumasi, senior analysts at Rabobank, said in a September report.
The impact of the fees will vary, partly because of China’s reliance on U.S. supplies for some products. Cherry and grape shipments will be hurt most, with exports expected to fall more than 20 percent, the bank said.