Today’s trends offer peek at the America of 2050

Hard though it may be to distance ourselves from these disruptive times, let’s try to take a broader view.

In the long perspective of history, what might seem to be short-term developments typically have roots extending at least a generation earlier.

Although the Trump phenomenon owes much to the president’s persona, his election was a consequence of various factors that arguably began in the 1980s and were amplified by Fox News and the economic decline of many U.S. states.

Assuming the trends we see today evolve in coming decades, how will America look in 2050 and how will these times be viewed then?

• Partisan politics, which became more stratified in the 1980s, may still be the order of the day. However, issues such as climate change are so compelling they could force bipartisan and even global governmental solutions by 2050.

• Immigration as an issue could be supplanted by overpopulation on a planet that will have reached what scientists currently say is a maximum sustainable number of about 11 billion people. (The global population is over 7.6 billion, and there were about 125 million births annually as of 2014.)

• Income inequality may be the single greatest issue of divisiveness and one that will be viewed as having reached a tipping point in these times. In the future, a growing number of “have nots” could force, hopefully through the voting process and not revolutions, major changes in governmental models.

•America and other affluent current First World countries may be viewed as being in a permanent state of decline due to the generations-long “softening” of their cultures. Factors cited could include the longterm impact of “helicopter parenting” and sheltering of children from the kinds of good stress related to hard work and coping with social situations that help mold character; devalued educations based on loosening of grading standards at secondary schools and colleges; and the effects of social media in creating a nation of “me first” citizens.

• Social media and its future progeny, like many technological advances, may be viewed as a twoedged sword. While it will have empowered some for productive purposes, its greater impact may be that of isolating people from each other and favoring transactional relationships over deeper, in-person relationship-building. Historians may say social media created mentally lazy citizens and also was the pivotal development in the blurring of the line between news and entertainment that began in the 1980s with the advent of cable TV and talk radio that favored opinions over facts.

• “Hungrier” nations with stronger work ethics may have surpassed America in terms of global competitiveness. (According to the World Economic Forum’s 2016-17 Global Competitiveness Index, the U.S. ranked third. However, U.S. productivity began a long slowdown in the mid-2000s.)

• More jobs in cities may make us an even more urban nation. (In 1920, 5 percent of Americans lived in cities; by 2010, nearly 81 percent lived in urban areas.) How this and future generations deal with urban issues in which people live in close proximity will have a major impact on American civilization.

• On the positive side, these times may be perceived as the period when women broke through barriers to attain leadership positions and became a force for moderation in politics. The large increase of women in the current Congress is a major marker.

• Other positives: The strength of America’s legal system, checks and balances in government, soundness of our financial system, business ethics and dominance of technological innovation may maintain our status as the preferred place to do business globally.

What may be most remembered about these times is how fear trumped hope as a primary emotion of a growing number of Americans. Having once elected a president (FDR) who declared “we have nothing to fear but fear itself” we now have a president whose strategy is to leverage fear and who is aided in that effort by major media figures.

As the emotion that can undo individuals and countries faster than any specific development, fear remains our greatest enemy. Our ability to retain our historical image as a country founded on hope requires us to resist fear, impulsiveness, greed and wrath and embrace courage, truth, prudence, humility and kindness. The success of that effort may be the greatest legacy we leave future generations.