Measuring demand
Tesla faces a heavy lift as Model 3 enters Europe and China
For Tesla Inc. investors, the last year was all about whether the company could make enough cars at a stable rate. This year is going to be all about who would buy those cars.
As Tesla gears up to expand into Europe and China, investors and analysts are now focused on the demand trends experienced by the company in all of its markets. “Tesla has now shifted from a production story to a demand story,” Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a note to clients on Monday, adding that Norway, the Netherlands, and Germany are front and center as the countries with strong pentup demand for Model 3s in Europe.
“The big question for investors will be watching this Model 3 demand trajectory throughout Europe to gauge the pace of unit deliveries and how quickly can it reach the 100,000 units delivery barometer over the next 12 months in this key region, with China also a demand driver/potential wild card,” the analyst wrote.
Tesla chief Elon Musk visited Europe over the weekend, stopping in Norway, which is the company’s third-biggest market, helped by generous incentives for low-emission vehicles and high taxes on gasfueled cars. Separately, China’s state-run newspaper Global Times tweeted on Monday that the first shipment of the Model 3 had arrived at the Port of Tianjin, ready for delivery to Chinese customers.
The electric vehicle maker had kicked off this year on a dull note after fourth-quarter deliveries slightly lagged expectations, followed by multiple price cuts for the Model 3 sedan in order to compensate for the gradual elimination of a federal tax incentive. The quarterly profit, reported in late January, also missed estimates and failed to inspire investor confidence.
Tesla stock had fallen more than 8 percent this year through Friday, before Monday’s gains. The S&P 500 Index gained 8 percent over the same period.
A regulatory filing also shows that T. Rowe Price Group Inc. sold almost half of its stake in Tesla Inc. during the fourth quarter. The money manager held 8.98 million Tesla shares, equaling 5.2 percent of the electric automaker’s shares outstanding at the end of December, after reporting that it held a 10.2 percent stake, 17.4 million shares, as of Sept. 30.
Yet despite the shaky numbers and a lackluster outlook, some say the company is on the right path. “We believe the last two quarters and recent guidance for first quarter have removed significant concerns for both production capability and profitability of the critical Model 3,” Canaccord Genuity analyst Jed Dorsheimer wrote in a note. “As such, we see a more stable 2019 with far fewer concerns for investors in the company.”
Dorsheimer also upgraded Tesla to buy from hold, and raised his price traget to $450 from $330, saying the Street underappreciates the company’s progress in the electric vehicle market.
The steady advance of global automakers into the electric car market has weighed on Tesla’s valuation over the past 12 months, with Morgan Stanley calling Tesla’s 80 percent U.S. electric vehicle market share in 2018 unsustainable. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas said he expected the “next serious competition” to come “from a ‘clean sheet’ start-up with access to talent & capital focused on the fastest growing segments of pickup trucks & SUVS.”