Why each candidate can win in state
Which story will you see once this wild election is finally settled in Ohio?
We should’ve known all along. After all, the polls in 2016 showed Donald Trump was in trouble in Ohio, too. But just like four years ago, the Republican president generated enthusiasm through large rallies and won big across rural Ohio to take the state.
OR
We should’ve known it all along. After all, the polls showed Joe Biden was better liked than Hillary Clinton in 2016. Taking advantage of suburban voters’ discomfort with Trump’s response to COVID-19, Biden pulled off a win.
So which will it be? We asked an assortment of observers of and participants in Ohio’s political process for their take on who will win the state (not necessarily who they support).
Biden
Younger voters and older voters combine to give Biden a win in Ohio. An unprecedented early voting turnout by the 18-to-29-year-old demographic — over 100% in some counties as compared with 2016 — and a slight shift among the over-55 crowd worried about the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, gave a narrow victory to former Vice President Joe Biden in Ohio.
– Joseph Mas, Columbus attorney, Ohio Hispanic Coalition
Trump
It’s been a campaign I will remember most for the zealotry of voters for each side. President Trump was knocked off stride by the pandemic, and his handling of it has energized opposition voters and hurt him with centrist voters. I expect Trump to win a squeaker in Ohio but lose the electoral vote nationally.
– Curt Steiner, longtime GOP political consultant, chief of staff for the late Gov. George V. Voinovich
Too close to call
It’s all in Ohio going to be about turnout, and it’s almost shocking that it’s this close. ... Here in central Ohio, there’s a real fear among Republicans that there’s a tsunami coming. I was saying that Donald Trump would win Ohio, but I wouldn’t put any money on it.
– John Kasich, former Ohio governor, CNN commentator
Biden
In 2020, Ohio slipped into the second tier of “swing states” due to the mistaken belief that it is now a solidly red state. Not true, and Joe Biden will prove that this election when he wins the Buckeye State.
In 2016, Trump won thanks largely to his appeal in the Mahoning Valley area and the Democrats’ failure to get out the Black vote. The same mistake will not be made twice. The long lines of voters across the state are Ohioans who want a president who addresses the pandemic and the lagging economy. Biden wins more out of default than direct appeal.
– Mary Anne Sharkey, Clevelandarea political consultant
Trump
President Trump will again win Ohio. His impressive team has been on the ground here for more than a year, while former Vice President Biden is late to show up in our state. Biden’s lack of clarity on fracking, his job-killing tax plan, and his embrace of the far left with Kamala Harris put him out of step with Ohio.
– Alex Triantafilou, Hamilton County Republican chairman
Biden
Ohio voters want trust restored and recent polling has shown that the BidenHarris ticket has earned that trust. Suburban voters with be key in this race, however, in the end, I believe Ohio voters will elect the Biden Harris ticket.
– Derrick Clay, president/ceo New Visions Group in Columbus; Ohio director for former Vice President Al Gore’s 2000 campaign for president
Too close to call
I don’t think I can predict a winner in Ohio — some days my gut says Trump and some days it says Biden. If you had asked me 2 months ago, I would have certainly said Donald Trump, but today I can’t say the same. He had a solid lead in most polls, and a strong performance in 2016. But, today the polls have tightened significantly and the polling screams “toss up.”
– Nancy Martorano Miller, associate professor of Political Science at the University of Dayton
There you go: Clear as mud.
The polls don’t help much either. As of Friday, Ohio surveys compiled by The New York Times showed the two candidates were separated by less than 1%. On fivethirtyeight.com, the rolling average showed Trump at 46.6%, Biden at 46.5%.
Both of those are the closest in the country, tighter than more-ballyhooed races in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“It really is going to come down to the get-out-the-vote efforts (enthusiasm) on each side,” Miller said via email.
She noted that Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown received more votes than GOP Gov. Mike Dewine in the 2018 election.
“Some of those 2016 Trump voters likely cast ballots for Brown, which means they could be open to voting for Biden, who is more favorably viewed that Hillary Clinton was in 2016,” Miller said.
“I think the handling of the pandemic and how it is intertwined with the economy have left many voters in Ohio torn. My sense is also that the suburban women are also fired up and motivated to vote — much more than they were in 2016 (and possibly in 2018). It isn’t going to take much to shift the state one way or another.”
Republicans, who could campaign for Trump while Biden had to devote his efforts to staying alive in the Democratic primaries, have traditionally employed a strong “ground game” in Ohio — the nitty-gritty work of canvassing, going door to door and talking to voters one on one.
Because of their necessarily late start and greater self-imposed COVID restrictions, Biden supporters have relied more on phone banks and the like. But Biden has a huge advantage in TV ads airing on Ohio stations; Trump has been dark for the past couple of months, although the state’s voters still see his commercials on national cable networks.
Candidate visits are way down as well, even as Trump returns to the large rallies that marked his successful 2016 campaign. Of the nearly 200 stops by Biden, Trump or their running mates since Sept. 1, only 14 have come in Ohio, per the Chicago Tribune’s campaign trail tracker.
Miller said she has been pondering how the recent Ohio surge in COVID cases might impact Election Day voting. Trump’s baseless rhetoric about widespread fraud with mail-in ballots has resonated with GOP voters, she said.
Early voting figures from across the state show that Democrats are dominating, while most Republicans are waiting to cast their ballots on Election Day. That leads Miller to wonder about the possibility of a uniquely 2020 dynamic.
“Currently, Ohio’s surge is more severe in rural counties where President Trump has the strongest support. What if a significant number of likely Trump voters don’t make it the polls on Election Day either because they are too sick to go or are quarantining?” she asked.
“If the election in Ohio is as close as polls are indicating, less-than-robust turnout in some counties could make a difference.”
Somehow, that could prove a fitting end to a year that started with the impeachment of a president that’s now been almost forgotten in light of thousands of COVID deaths and innumerable lives impacted, racial justice protests, devastating fires, hurricanes that have used up the English alphabet and start on the Greek, closed schools and businesses, fanless Ohio State football games and, yes, even murder hornets. drowland@dispatch.com @darreldrowland