REASON TO HOPE
Experts see signs that flu season could be milder than usual
Trying to predict the flu season, even for experts with data and science at their fingertips, is generally as effective as staring into a crystal ball for answers on the future. h “Oftentimes they are wrong or off-base,” said Dr. Joseph Gastaldo, an Ohio
Health infectious disease physician. h Still, health care providers use the data they have to understand what might lie ahead so they can prepare for it, especially given that the 2020-2021 flu season is coinciding with the global coronavirus pandemic. h Though predictions should be looked at cautiously, Gastaldo said, those who study infectious diseases have a bit more information this fall than in previous years on which to base their thoughts on coming months.
Gastaldo said there’s reason to think influenza cases might not be as high this year when looking at three different area: mitigation strategies (mask wearing, social distancing, good hand-washing) already in place because of the pandemic; what the state saw in the spring in regards to flu; and the influenza virus’ activity in the southern hemisphere.
“In the spring, with the state lockdown, you can look at the flu curve — once we went into lockdown, it flatlined … that compares with data we had at Ohiohealth,” Gastaldo said. “When you look at flu in the southern hemisphere, flu season is just ending there – New Zealand, Australia, Uruguay, the flu activity was very minimal. Again that’s good.”
Dr. Iahn Gonsenhauser, chief quality and patient safety officer at the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, has also been watching what’s been happening in the lower portion of the globe where they’ve “had absolutely shockingly low flu numbers,” he said.
Flu season, he continued, has essentially not happened in the southern hemisphere because of precautions that people are already taking due to the coronavirus.
However, he, too cautioned about predictions.
“I also thought that the United States would do better in its COVID response so I don’t want to put all my eggs in one basket,” Gonsenhauser said. “But we do have reason to believe that the flu will have a lower impact than in previous years.”
That’s welcome news as the state is already seeing spikes in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations as the weather has cooled and some have tempered their precautionary measures.
Another positive sign, Gonsenhauser and other area experts said, is that people seem to be getting their flu vaccines at a steady clip, despite added barriers, like not working in an office (where many get their flu shots) or feeling uncomfortable in medical settings because of possible COVID-19 exposure.
Internally, the vaccine rates at Wexner Medical Center are outpacing prior years, Gonsenhauser said. Vaccine data from August and September from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed promise, he added, although it was early in the flu season. It’s recommended people get their flu shots before the end of October.
“Usually, there are not a lot of flu vaccines administered in August and September but the CDC reported the same number of vaccines that you would see at peak times,” Gonsenhauser said.
Retail pharmacies have stepped up to fill a void while health systems and nonprofit groups have ramped up awareness campaigns and created drive-thru vaccine clinics for the first time.
Caresource, the state’s largest Medicaid managed care plan, wanted to foster greater access to flu immunizations, both to members and communities, by hosting these types of events across the state.
“People still have a lot of anxieties and concerns of exposure to COVID-19, but you need to get your flu vaccine,” said Donna Gabbard, director of women’s and children’s health at Care
Source. “With the flu, you decrease your immune system and that puts you at a higher risk if you do come in contact with COVID-19 and then, you’re in the same category as our vulnerable populations.”
There are still a lot of unknowns with COVID-19, especially how it could affect an individual who already has the flu or is just getting over influenza, said Dr. Mysheika Roberts, health commissioner with Columbus Public Health.
That’s why they’ve doubled up their flu vaccination efforts this fall: The city’s health department ordered more than twice the amount of vaccines it typically administers (3,000 doses), hoping to give out 7,000 this flu season.
During the first 17 days of October, Columbus Public Health administered 1,500 flu vaccines despite not being able to go into schools, where in years past they’ve done the bulk of their clinics.
“We had a feeling that there was going to be greater interest and we knew we were planning on promoting it more than we ever had,” Roberts said. “We’ve heard all the predictions – that it’s going to be really bad, ‘a twindemic,’ and we’ve heard that it will be milder because we’re wearing masks. We don’t know and the predictions could go either way.”
Roughly three weeks into flu season, Ohiohealth hadn’t seen a case of influenza yet, Gastaldo said. He added that Nationwide Children’s Hospital hadn’t reported any flu activity, either, as October drew to a close.
“Children are real drivers of the spread of influenza,” he said
Hopefully, he said, everyone continues to adhere to virus-mitigating strategies, including getting a flu shot.
“When we switch to cooler climates, when we switch to the holidays, when we switch to watching the Buckeyes play football together, we increase our risk of COVID-19 and we increase our risk of flu,” Gastaldo said. “We will have flu activity. Now how bad it gets? We want to take that off the table as much as possible.” award@dispatch.com @Allisonaward