Dems didn’t heed 2018 warnings about Ohio
Party thinking about expanding map
Democrats were frustrated after falling short in Ohio once again.
Strategist Michael Halle said it's time for his party to forget about states like Ohio and Iowa and concentrate on Arizona and Georgia.
Guy Cecil, chair of super-pac Priorities USA, agreed with ditching Ohio and Iowa in favor of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
A couple of guys carping that Joe Biden put so much effort into the two fourletter-word states won comfortably by Donald Trump instead of areas that turned out to be critical to the outcome of the 2020 presidential election? Nope.
These comments came almost two years ago, after disappointing results for Democrats in 2018 Ohio and Iowa state races.
Now analysts are wondering whether party leaders should have listened more closely.
Halle oversaw Hillary Clinton's campaign in battleground states in 2016 and managed Richard Cordray's unsuccessful 2018 run for Ohio governor.
“It's kind of scary, because Ohio and Iowa are two states that Obama won in both his presidential campaigns, and now they're just not competitive in the way they once were,” he told the New York Times after Cordray was defeated by Republican Mike Dewine. “We are at a place where we need to expand the map.”
But the polls...
The consensus of public opinion polls leading up to last week's election showed Ohio as the closest state in the nation.
Trump's 8-point win seemed to indicate that either public opinion polling is totally broken, or there may be something to this year's pet theory of the “shy” Trump voter who — as GOP pollsters from Neil Newhouse to Frank Luntz say — either refuse to cooperate with or simply lie to those taking surveys. All this merits a glance back at the 2016 Dispatch Poll, which showed Hillary Clinton with a too-close-to-call 1point lead over Trump just before that election. Trump's easy victory marked a low point for the now-discontinued mail poll, which had been rated the top single-state survey just four years earlier by Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com for exactly foreshadowing Barack Obama's margin in Ohio.
But the 2016 poll also had its high points, including exactly matching GOP Sen. Rob Portman's victory over Ted Strickland, 58% to 37%, on election night.
So the same mail poll ballots that nailed a Republican landslide in a Senate race — and also showed the GOP winners of two Ohio Supreme Court races, which are notoriously hard to poll — fell short of reflecting Trump's full support.
You tell me.
Trump barrage
It was one thing to witness Trump's disinformation deluge about the election on TV last week, but it was quite another to be on the receiving end of dozens of falsehood-ridden fund-raising pleas in the three days after they election.
A few snippets:
Wed, 12:08 a.m. - “The Fake News media and their Democrat Partners will REFUSE to call the race. They will try to do whatever it takes to KEEP US FROM WINNING, and that's why I need YOU to step up.”
Wed, 6:21 a.m. - “Despite the numbers that are very obviously in favor of YOUR President, THE DEMOCRATS WILL TRY TO STEAL THIS ELECTION! Just like I predicted from the start, mailin ballots are leading to CHAOS like you've never seen, plain and simple!”
Wed, 11:24 a.m. - “I warned the Nation this would happen. I knew the Democrats wouldn't be able to accept another CRUSHING defeat, so now they're trying to mess with the results. It's madness!”
Wed, 8:52 p.m. - “The Democrats are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed!”
Wed, 9:51 p.m. - “We have won Pennsylvania.”
Wed, 11:51 p.m. - “Last night, President Trump was leading, often solidly, in many key States - in almost all instances Democrat-run and controlled. Then, one by one, his lead started to magically disappear as surprise ballot dumps were counted. VERY STRANGE...”
Thu, 12:52 a.m. - “Mail-in ballots have led to total and complete CHAOS. They are finding Biden votes all over the place.”
Thu, 9:03 a.m. - “If the Election isn't called before January 6th, Nancy Pelosi will decide the Presidency.”
Fri, 1:35 p.m. - “If you count the LEGAL votes, I easily win the Election. If you count the ILLEGAL and LATE votes, the Radical Left can steal this Election from us.”
Fri, 2:21 p.m. - “President Trump was up BIG on Election night and then - almost as if it was magic - THOUSANDS of Biden votes were dumped late at night in Michigan, with absolutely NO overview. Insanity!”
Fri, 10:21 p.m. - “Joe Biden wants to count ILLEGAL ballots”
Fri, 4:21 p.m. - “So far, you've ignored all our emails asking you to join us in DEFENDING THE ELECTION. You've ignored Team Trump, Eric, Lara, Don, the Vice President AND you've even ignored the President of the United States. TENS OF THOUSANDS of Patriots have stepped up for the VERY FIRST TIME in the last 48 hours - why haven't you?” drowland@dispatch.com @darreldrowland