Could deadly Tenn. flooding happen here?
Tragic images remind officials of great risks
As the tragic images emerged of homes splintered and swept away, cars stacked like toys and families grieving human loss in a small Tennessee community, Ohio emergency management directors watched in horror.
Flooding, they say, is among central Ohio’s greatest risks, and flash-flooding often is difficult to predict, especially when storm clouds linger for hours, dumping seemingly endless rainfall.
Eighteen people died Saturday in the flooding that swept through Waverly, Tennessee. As much as 17 inches of rain fell within hours in the rural area, home to about 4,000 people and 60 miles west of Nashville.
Flooding ‘our biggest risk’ say central Ohio emergency management officials
Local officials have since been asked: Could it happen here?
“Anybody, anywhere,” said Sean Grady,
director of the Licking County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. “You could be living on the side of a hill, and there’s the potential for mud slides. You start looking at the potential for all the bad things that can happen to you. It can definitely keep you awake at night.”
“Flooding, by far, is probably our biggest risk every year,” he said.
And what happened in Tennessee? “That’s your nightmare scenario.” Grady and others point to the increase in severe weather in the past 20 years, including widespread flooding last year in his county. He doesn’t know if it’s climate change-related, but he concedes: “Something’s changing. There are more of these events, and they’re getting nastier every year.”
Advanced radar tracking of storms and warning systems might help, but they’re useful only if people activate their cell phones or other devices to get and heed the warnings.
“In the middle of the night, people turn off their phones. They don’t get the warnings,” said Sarah Mcnamee, director of the Marion County Office of Emergency Management.
The county north of Columbus has had repeated flooding over the years. But it also mitigated much of the danger with massive earth-moving projects and storm water enhancements to protect hard-hit communities such as Larue, a village of about 800.
Even the best preparations are no match for storm clouds that stagnate unexpectedly over one area, though, she said.
“No one has the capacity to move that much water away. Nobody’s drains are equipped for that much water.”
Forecasting record rainfall is challenging for meteorologists
Meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Wilmington have been discussing the Tennessee disaster and wondering whether anything more could have been done to warn folks and save lives.
“That amount of loss of life and destruction, it’s not something that we see,” said Seth Binau, science and operations officer at the service.
Forecasting record rainfall is challenging, he said. Flood warnings were in place for Tennessee, but predicting a once-in-a-generation deluge in a timely manner is difficult.
“That’s on the very edges of our science,” he said. He equated stalled storm clouds that are replenished by warm, saturated air as being “like a swimming pool being emptied, but having a massive hose that keeps filling it.”
“It’s not until it really starts to happen that we realize that this is going to produce a foot of rainfall in 24 hours,” he said.
And forecasts that overstate the actual severity can create mistrust, Binau said. By releasing a forecast that predicts catastrophic consequences, “there is a high predictability you’d be wrong, and then your credibility would go down.”
Even with trustworthy information, not all natural disasters are perceived rationally by the public. For example, while the response to tornadoes often is terror, people may think can just swim or drive away from rising water, emergency experts say.
“I think sometimes it looks a little less intimidating,” Mcnamee said.
But when your home fills with water within minutes or begins to move on its foundation, or your car floats away?
“This is a horrifying situation that really didn’t have to happen this way,” she said.
Grady recalled visiting the site of a flash flood in northeastern Licking County about five years ago. Flood waters along a creek rose unexpectedly to where only the heads of horses were visible.
“We never figured out why that water rose that fast,” he said. “It was not raining when that happened. That’s the scary part.”
Counties are equipped with stream gauges that measure water level in real time and allow for up-stream monitoring. Grady watches those gauges closely during heavy rain patterns. He knows that his office is often the last and best way to alert his county’s 178,000 residents to danger.
“Where it’s the deadliest is in areas where it hasn’t occurred in the past,” Mcnamee said. “People aren’t expecting it.”
Recovery happens more quickly where flood insurance is available
Three decades ago, in the village of Shadyside in Belmont County in eastern Ohio, three inches of rain fell within two hours. The wall of water and flooding that resulted killed 26 people.
That June 14, 1990, event and recovery efforts that followed were hampered by poor communication among emergency services and eventually inspired the state to build an interoperable statewide radio system.
Overriding all the precautions are incentives for communities to lessen their risk.
Steve Ferryman is the mitigation branch chief for the Ohio Emergency Management Agency, which administers federal grant funding to local communities for all natural hazards. Flooding is considered the state’s highest risk, beyond wind damage, tornadoes and winter storms, he said.
“What we would normally think of as the 100-year flood in Ohio used to be four to six inches of rain in 24 hours,” he said.
A week ago, in parts of eastern Franklin County, up to seven inches of rain fell in 24 hours.
“I think there’s no doubt in Ohio that we are experiencing an increase in intense rainfall events, whether you want to attribute that to climate change or not,” Ferryman said.
The Ohio Department of Natural Resources likewise oversees programs to provide incentives for communities to reduce their flood risks.
The National Flood Insurance Program offers flood insurance in communities that otherwise wouldn’t qualify if the village, city or county agrees to take steps to mitigate their flood risk.
Alicia Silverio oversees the program for 754 participating Ohio communities. There are 97, mostly smaller communities, such as the village of Brice in Franklin County, that have chosen not to participate.
“The risk is detrimental to the sustainability of the community and to the property owners,” Silverio said. “Those who have flood insurance recover more quickly.”
For those who do take part: “It’s great that there’s more awareness of risk . ... It’s important for the communities to have these dialogues.”
Ferryman said that everyone can take steps to safeguard their families and property.
If they doing nothing else, he said, “People really need to be prepared to be on their own for 72 hours ... to take personal responsibility to make sure you have enough food and water for survival.” dnarciso@dispatch.com @Deannarciso