Shop early this holiday season, retailers say

Supply chain, labor issues could cause problems

Consumers are expected to be in the mood to spend this holiday season, but this isn’t the year to procrastinate.

With the COVID-19 pandemic snarling supply chains and threatening to leave stores and distribution centers short-staffed, consumers may need to shop early to avoid missing must-have items. Big discounts, too, could be tougher to come by, thanks to higher transportation and labor costs.

“COVID-19 is going to be the Grinch that stole Christmas yet again this year,” said Per Hong, senior partner in the consulting firm Kearney’s strategic operations practice.

Holiday retail sales are projected to rise between 7% and 9% this year, hitting $1.3 trillion, according to a forecast from Deloitte. The delta variant hasn’t slowed spending, and there’s “huge pent-up demand,” said Curt Bimschleger, managing director at Deloitte.

The challenge for retailers will be meeting that demand in a year when disruptions are hitting every step of the supply chain, from recent factory shutdowns in Asia to control the spread of COVID-19 to logjams at ports that lengthen shipping times to shortages of warehouse workers and truck drivers.

Retailers have been working to get ahead of the disruptions but “probably not as successfully as they’d want to be,” said Rick Maicki, managing director at Berkeley Research Group Corporate Finance.

Companies like Walmart and Target say they have at least 20% more inventory than last year. Still, the disruptions could make it tougher for retailers to restock items once they run out.

“If you see something you want … you’ll want to pull the trigger earlier, because you don’t know if it’s going to be there later,” Maicki said. “The flow of product is uncertain.”

Supply chain issues have hit everything from toilet paper to chicken wings to semiconductors since the start of the pandemic and are still affecting a wide variety of products across industries. But

See HOLIDAY, Page 7B

“At this point we feel optimistic that we will deliver on all existing commercial commitments that we have made this year, but we did not want to put our retailers’ holiday business in jeopardy by continuing to accept new orders that we do not feel confident about delivering in time.” Filip Francke CEO of Ravensburger North America and global head of games

STACEY WESCOTT/CHICAGO TRIBUNE/TNS Kevin Sobkowicz of Arlington Heights, Illinois, looks over fishing poles and fishing gear at Dick’s Sporting Goods. Retail groups are urging consumers to do their holiday shopping early.