Key 5th District race just a month away
Trump, House Bill 6 permeate the election
PICKERINGTON – Mike Carey walked door-to-door through a quiet neighborhood on a recent Saturday, armed with campaign flyers and a sidekick from the Republican National Committee.
Across town, state Rep. Allison Russo mingled with supporters at a block party as loud music played and the smell of hot dogs wafted through the air.
It was another day in the race for Ohio’s 15th Congressional District, which will come to a head on Nov. 2 when voters decide who should replace former U.S. Rep. Steve Stivers. The campaign has flown under the radar despite a noisy GOP primary, and candidates find themselves breaking the news to people that an election is coming up.
Still, Republicans see the 15th District as a way to set the stage for a comeback in 2022. And in a district that former President Donald Trump carried by 14 percentage points, they like their chances.
“Every state, every congressional district is in play,” said RNC co-chair Tommy Hicks, who campaigned with Carey in Pickerington. “We’re going to win back the House in 2022; we’re going to win back the Senate. These special elections really give us an opportunity to build our infrastructure going into the midterms.”
About the candidates
The 15th District spans from Upper Arlington to Athens to Mcconnelsville, although redistricting will change its makeup beginning next year.
Carey, who spent years working as a coal lobbyist, defeated 10 Republican opponents in the August primary with 37% of the vote. He secured Trump’s endorsement earlier this year and has made that a hallmark of his campaign, even referencing it on the back of T-shirts.
Russo, an Upper Arlington Democrat, touts experience in the public health sector and as a state lawmaker representing Ohio’s 24th House District. Republicans paint her as someone who would fall in line with Democratic leadership, but she disputes that and says she’s an independent thinker who serves her constituents first.
The two could not be more different on policy – just look at the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill. Carey believes it’s a “boondoggle” that would hurt Ohioans already contending with a spike in inflation. Russo said it’s premature to say whether she’d support it but believes both sides need to compromise on a final plan.
“We clearly know that there are things that we have to invest in because they are not sustainable in the long term and they in fact cost us more money in the long term, things like investing in more affordable child care, for example,” she said.
Sparring on airwaves, social media
With Election Day just weeks away, the mudslinging has started to ramp up.
State party leaders on both sides of the aisle used editorial pages to tout their chosen candidate and tear down their opponent. Carey, borrowing from the GOP playbook, has sought to tie Russo to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and told supporters in Pickerington that she bought air time because people haven’t heard of the two-term state representative.
Russo’s campaign, meanwhile, ran two television ads that accused Carey of lying about his ties to the House Bill 6 scandal.
Carey worked for Murray Energy, which gave $100,000 to the dark money group that helped support candidates backed by former House Speaker Larry Householder in 2018. Murray was dubbed “Company B” in the criminal complaint that accused Householder of orchestrating a $61 million bribery scheme to win control of the Ohio House, pass House Bill 6 and defend that law against a ballot initiative to block it. Neither Carey nor Murray Energy has been charged with a crime.
Ohio Republicans unsuccessfully lobbied multiple Columbus TV stations to take down the first ad.
Do Democrats have a chance?
The 15th District leans Republican by 9 percentage points in the Cook Partisan Voting Index, meaning it’s an uphill battle for any Democrat who wants to run.
Russo and other Democrats counter that by pointing to Sen. Sherrod Brown’s 2018 victory in the 15th. Former Ohio Democratic Party chair David Pepper noted that it’s less red than other districts in Ohio and was represented for years by a moderate Republican.
Pepper also believes Russo offers a stark contrast to Carey and may appeal to voting blocs like suburban women who distanced themselves from a Trumpier Republican Party.
“It’s a district where the quality of the candidate matters, and potentially a good Democratic candidate can get close or win,” he said.
But the current political environment may not lend itself to a strong showing for a Democrat in a special election, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Unlike 2018, there’s a Democrat in the White House and growing frustration among Republicans.
“I don’t think Democrats really view this seat as one that’s worth going all in on,” Kondik said.
Carey, for his part, said he’s running his campaign as if the seat is competitive.
“This is a special election,” he said. “This may have an advantage with Republican voters in a normal election year, but there are a lot of people who don’t realize there’s an election going on. It’s about voter turnout.”
Haley Bemiller is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, which serves the Columbus Dispatch.