Ohio State has too much offensive firepower for UM
Let’s get something straight. Mathematically speaking, No. 5 Michigan is not “due” to beat No. 2 Ohio State Saturday in Ann Arbor. The odds do not favor the Wolverines just because it is assumed that at some point TTUN has to end its eight-game losing streak to the Buckeyes.
Technically, no. As with a coin flip, each Ohio State-michigan game is its own probability event, with each school having a 50-50 chance of winning. All things being equal.
Of course, all things are not equal. For the bulk of the past two decades the Buckeyes have been better in almost every football category, from recruiting to coaching to scoreboard. Maybe No. 5 Michigan has closed the gap this season. Maybe not. I know this: filling a 10-inch crack in the foundation so it’s only four inches wide does not guarantee the Big House won’t cave in under more UM disappointment.
Don’t take my word for it. Math isn’t exactly my thing. Listen to Jeff Sagarin, the super smart — I didn’t ask about his IQ, but it has to be up there — creator of the Sagarin ratings that for decades have been used to rate college teams.
Sagarin, who spent the 197071 school year at Ohio State crunching numbers and playing pickup basketball on campus — his blacktop claim to fame is tipping a rebound over former Buckeyes guard Jim Cleamons on the outdoor courts near OSU’S Taylor Tower — may be a graduate of Massachusetts Institute of Technology but is no statistical stickin-the-mud.
Sure, the somewhat rumpled native New Yorker is more comfortable discussing software than outerwear, but he speaks Everyman English as easily as he does C++ programming.
So when I wanted to get to the bottom of the “Michigan is due” mumbo-jumbo I knew where to turn.
Mr. Fun-with-numbers did not disappoint.
“Let’s say Barney Fife was to fight Sonny Liston back in the day and both set up as they were,” Sagarin said. “I’m not sure Barney’s time would ever come.”
To be clear, Sagarin isn’t saying Michigan’s time will never come; after all, he ranks the Wolverines No. 4 behind No. 2 Ohio State. It is more that just because UM has not won since 2011 does not mean it stands any better statistical probability of winning on Saturday than next season. Or the next 100.
“People ask, ‘What if a coin came up heads 100 times in a row? What is the chance that on the next flip it will come up heads?’ The math answer is 50-50,” Sagarin said. “But I would say that if it happened in real life I would have the coin checked out. It could have been engineered to come up heads.”
In the same way, Ohio State’s program has been engineered to beat Michigan. The Buckeyes are 17-2 against their biggest rival since 2001. That lopsided record likely would be 18-2 except the teams did not play last year due to Michigan’s roster being decimated by COVID-19.
Sagarin, who lives in Bloomington, Indiana, and catches Hoosiers games when he can, does not rely solely on numbers when formulating his opinions (but he is numbers-centric when compiling his ratings). He leans on the eye test and his gut when discussing team strengths and weaknesses in casual conversation.
And his eyes tell him Ohio State will be hard to beat. He pointed out that Michigan defeated Indiana 29-7 while Ohio State thumped the Hoosiers 54-7.
“Michigan did not exactly crush Indiana, and we have no offense,” he said. “So by connective reasoning Ohio State
should bury Michigan, if you use that small sample size. But Michigan is moving quietly along.”
My eyes see Ohio State winning 3424, but this could be Michigan’s year, not because the Wolverines are due but because they are strong where the Buckeyes cannot afford to be weak. Michigan defensive ends Aiden Hutchinson and David Ojabo are the best pair of edge rushers Ohio State has seen, and if they can pressure C.J. Stroud into hurrying throws and throwing an interception or two?
How does Michigan flip the coin so a win over Ohio State finally lands right side up? Not by betting the odds but by creating its own breaks.
Even then, however, one or two Stroud turnovers won’t be enough to keep OSU’S offense from scoring 30 points, which should be enough to win. Where Michigan must make noise is on offense. Quarterback Cade Mcnamara reminds some UM old-timers of Tom Brady in the way he runs the offense without making mistakes (only two interceptions to go with 14 touchdowns). Expect Michigan to use backup quarterback J.J. Mccarthy, a better runner than Mcnamara, to keep Ohio State’s defense honest.
Michigan fans say Jim Harbaugh is re-energized and back to being the enthusiastic leader who went 20-6 his first two seasons in Ann Arbor. Of course, Captain Khaki couldn’t beat the Buckeyes then, either. But there’s a first time for everything, non-mathematically speaking.
roller@dispatch.com