Omicron in US peaking, but Ohio peak may still be coming
America's tally of new cases ticked down slightly for the first time since Christmas, a USA TODAY analysis of Johns Hopkins University data shows.
The country reported 5.23 million cases in the week ending Tuesday, down from 5.28 million cases in the seven-day period ending Monday. The earlier tally likely included tests deferred into that week from a long holiday weekend.
U.S. case counts are up 34% from a week ago, and on Tuesday 47 states reported higher case counts than a week earlier; 21 states set records for cases in a week; 48 states reported more COVID-19 patients in hospital beds; and 41 states reported more COVID-19 patients in intensive-care units, data from Johns Hopkins and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services show.
Still, there are encouraging signs. Boston has been a hot spot, but Dr. Mark Siedner of Massachusetts General Hospital told CBS in Boston there are early signs the city has “turned a corner.” One of those signs is a wastewater tracking system – virus particles found in wastewater are no longer infectious but can still be measured and can reflect trends among people contributing to the wastewater.
“The wastewater data are in, and the news is good,” tweeted Bill Hanage, associate professor at Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health. The data is “providing solid evidence, that importantly can't be put down to exhausted testing capacity or other factors.”
Signs of omicron's downfall are starting to show in Ohio, but the variant's peak could still be weeks away, said Dr. Joe Gastaldo, medical director of infectious diseases for Ohiohealth.
Since Jan. 3, new COVID infections have hovered between 18,000 and 20,500 statewide, according to the Ohio Department of Health.
The latest COVID surge started in the northeastern part of the state before moving south to Columbus and parts of Cincinnati, Gastaldo said.
In the last few weeks, new cases in the Cleveland area have started to decline, he said. But in the Columbus region, cases appear to have plateaued and in the Cincinnati area they are still increasing, Gastaldo said.
A clearer picture of omicron's peak in Ohio may come when hospitalizations begin to fall. It may be another two weeks before hospitalizations improve in the northeastern corner of the state and maybe another month or so before that number shrinks in Greater Columbus, Gastaldo said.
Hospitalizations remained near record-highs across Ohio on Wednesday, with 6,637 patients being treated for the virus statewide, according to the Ohio Hospital Association.
“`l'll take a ray of sunshine as I see it,” Gastaldo said. “There are reasons to be hopeful. … But, I will have a bigger sigh of relief once I see consistently that hospitalizations are coming down.”
Wastewater followers aren't alone in forecasting a decline in the omicron surge. Modeling by several universities also shows the wave of infections may have crested – and hospitalizations and deaths should follow. COVID-19 infections peaked Jan. 6, according to researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine.
That's close to estimates by the University of Texas, Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium, which puts the peak somewhere from Jan. 9-13.
“That's a range between the most pessimistic and optimistic scenarios,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the consortium.
Because hospitalizations lag infections by about two weeks, the University of Washington team estimated the daily U.S. hospital census, including incidental admissions with COVID-19, will peak by Jan. 25.
A study of data from 70,000 COVID patients in Southern California revealed that omicron resulted in less severe disease than other variants, a finding that supports similar research from South Africa and Britain.
Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at a White House COVID response briefing Wednesday that Kaiser Permanente of Southern California studied the patients, all of whom tested positive in December.
The vast majority of the positive samples were the omicron variant, which resulted in a rate of hospitalizations of about half of delta infections, she said. The variant also drastically cut hospital stays to an average of less than two days.
Walensky and other public health officials, however, have repeatedly warned that the sheer volume of infected Americans still means that many hospitals are being strained by high numbers of patients.
As new variants continue to emerge, including the incredibly contagious omicron variant, experts are calling for upgraded protective options such as N95 and KN95 masks. CDC chief Rochelle Walensky, however, said Wednesday that the CDC does not plan to recommend Americans toss out their cloth masks in favor of the superior-filtration masks.
“The best mask is the mask you will wear,” she said.
Still, finding and purchasing superior quality masks on the consumer market at a fair price is possible now – and it might be the next, best purchase you can make to protect yourself and others during the COVID-19 pandemic. The N95 and KN95 masks both are rated with 95% filtration efficiency. N95 masks are certified by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health. KN95S – which the CDC notes are the most widely available mask – are manufactured in China and meet standards specific to China.
USA TODAY NEWTWORK reporters Mike Stucka, Max Filby, Elizabeth Weise, John Bacon and Celina Tebor contributed to this story.