Guardians show value of advanced metrics
The baseball world has undergone an analytics revolution. Those in and around baseball now have better ways to break down what's happening and predict what might happen next.
In addition to batting average, RBIS, pitcher wins and ERA, some advanced metrics – FWAR, WRC+, BABIP, FIP, OOA, WOBA and so many others – give a more complete picture.
Teams are using advanced metrics as a part of their decision-making. They are taken into account during free agency, trade decisions, the draft and more.
One of the most crucial of these is Wins Above Replacement, or WAR.
WAR aims to measure a player's value to his team by calculating how many additional wins he'd be worth over a replacement-level player, in other words, a minor leaguer or readily available free agent fill-in.
An All-star caliber player tends to be around, at least, 3-6 WAR in a given season. Once you get over 6 WAR for a single season, you're probably talking about an MVP candidate.
For position players, batting, baserunning and fielding are all components. Those numbers are then adjusted for position and league trends that year, making it easier to compare a particular second baseman's value in 2022 with a specific left fielder in 2016. Pitchers have their calculations adjusted for league trends and ballparks.
Different sources have different calculations. When you see “FWAR,” that references Fangraphs' formula, while “BWAR” is Baseball-reference, and WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) is used by Baseball Prospectus.
To better illustrate this concept, here are some of the Guardians' numbers from last year:
Jose Ramirez (36 home runs, 103 RBIS, 27 stolen bases, above-average fielding rating) was worth 6.5 FWAR, near the top of the league. (He's already accrued 3.8 FWAR in 59 games this season.) Amed Rosario, after his torrid second half, came in a 2.4 FWAR – a positive contributor. On the other side, Jake Bauers, who struggled in Cleveland was worth -0.4 FWAR, meaning he was below the rate of a replacement-level player.