‘Bona fide chance’ of new tropical system
The Atlantic hurricane season was off to a quiet start before several storms exploded onto the scene in September, and the same forces that allowed Ian to rapidly intensify could lead to more hurricanes in coming weeks, meteorologists warn.
Ian struck Florida last week after an unusually inactive summer in which no named tropical storms or hurricanes formed in the Atlantic Ocean from July 3 to Aug. 30. The last time that happened was 1941, according to researchers.
Then in September, “all of a sudden, things started popping,” Accuweather senior meteorologist Bob Smerbeck told USA TODAY.
Tropical Storm Danielle was named on Sept. 1, followed by Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine and Ian.
Hurricanes Ian and Fiona both became catastrophic Category 4 storms.
And in the next few weeks, “there’s at least one bona fide chance for tropical development,” Smerbeck said.
The 2022 hurricane season got off to a slow start, but by August meteorologists warned there could still be strong storms ahead, even though none had been named yet.
“The first part of the season could have been more active than it was,” Susan Buchanan, the National Weather Service director of public affairs, told USA TODAY in a statement.
Fewer weather systems developed off Africa’s west coast this summer, and there were “unfavorable conditions” for them to turn into tropical storms in the western Atlantic, Smerbeck said.
Tropical storm activity usually picks up during “peak” season from late August into October, according to the weather service. And we have already seen nine named storms.
Based on data from 1991-2020, the average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, with three of them being major hurricanes (Categories 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), according to the National Hurricane Center.
The devastation in Florida, the Carolinas and Puerto Rico from major Hurricanes Ian and Fiona is more than enough to label the 2022 hurricane season a “bad” one, Buchanan said.