What Guardians need to make the playoffs
The Cleveland Guardians have a win total over/under, according to most sports books, of around 81 wins. They have a reasonable chance of hanging around as a .500 team, though depth behind certain injuries would doom them.
But unless the Minnesota Twins catch fire, and Byron Buxton and Co. manage to evade the injury bug, hanging around as a .500 team might mean Cleveland (or Detroit, or K.C.) plays meaningful baseball well into September. And with a little luck, the youngest roster in baseball with one of the youngest managers in recent memory does have a shot at pulling a March madnesslike upset.
Here is what needs to go right for the Guardians to win the American League Central:
Ramirez injury cannot happen
There is a valid argument that Jose Ramirez is perhaps the single most valuable player to his own team in the majors. He’s one of baseball’s best, and he might be the most irreplaceable.
He has four top-four MVP finishes under his belt, including one year in which he played half the season with a thumb injury that needed surgery.
A recent 2024 MLB player survey had him in a tie for the most underrated in baseball.
Ramirez has played in at least 93% of Cleveland’s games in every season except for one since 2016.
Bieber, Mckenzie need to stay healthy
The Guardians have missed the playoffs three times since the 2016 season (2019, 2021, 2023). There was one common thread to all three: the starting rotation ran into significant injuries and couldn’t recover enough to avoid missing the postseason.
Now, last season was more so due to an offense that was statistically the league’s worst for several weeks. But the depth issues with the pitching staff only compounded that problem.
Shane Bieber has missed extended time in two of the past three years. Triston Mckenzie tossed only 16 innings last year and is still a pretty significant injury risk considering it was his UCL. If he avoids any further damage moving forward, it’ll be a huge win for the Guardians in and of itself.
Manzardo needs to hit
The Guardians lineup needs a boost. Myles Straw opening the year in Triple-a instead of being in the everyday lineup in center field should help. Bo Naylor taking over primary catching duties should help there, too.
But Cleveland will need an assist from the Clippers.
The first is that the Guardians need Kyle Manzardo to make his debut and hit the ground running. Manzardo was the return for Aaron Civale at last year’s trade deadline, as the Guardians needed to jump at the chance to add a top-100 hitting prospect. Once he does make the jump to the majors, he should split first base and the designated hitter spot with Josh Naylor.
Chase Delauter had one of the most eye-popping springs across the league, hitting .520 with a 1.640 OPS and four highlight-reel home runs. He wasn’t actually in big league camp, only logging at-bats during Cactus League games, but he made plenty of noise.
Delauter could very well make his major league debut and provide a boost to an outfield group that still has a lot of question marks at some point this summer.
Bullpen needs a rebound
The Guardians bullpen didn’t just have an off year statistically. It always seemed to blow up at the worst possible times.
It was far from a disastrous unit, but it was also far from the top-five option it was in 2022.
It starts with Emmanuel Clase, who was good in 2023 (3.22 ERA, 44 saves, 64 strikeouts) but elite in 2022 (1.36 ERA, 42 saves, 77 strikeouts). They need him to be as close to the 2022 version that was arguably the best reliever in baseball for a year.
Scott Barlow, in a way the Guardians’ key offseason addition, figures to be the leading high-leverage setup man to bridge the gap to Clase.
After those two, there are a lot of uncertainties with who takes what roles, and who is even available. Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak and Sam Hentges are all going to start the season on the injured list.