Broken spacecraft to likely crash soon

MOSCOW — A Russian spacecraft designed to burnish the nation’s faded space glory in a mission to one of Mars’ moons has turned into one of the heaviest, most toxic pieces of space junk ever and will come crashing down to Earth in just a few days.

The Russian space agency Roscosmos’ latest forecast has the unmanned Phobos-ground probe falling out of Earth’s orbit Sunday or Monday, with the median time placing it over the Indian Ocean just north of Madagascar.

It said the precise time and place of its uncontrolled plunge can only be determined later. Unless someone actually spots fiery streaks in the sky, no one may ever know where any surviving pieces end up.

Space experts agree that it’s unlikely to pose big risks.

At 14.6 tons, the PhobosGround is one of the heaviest spacecraft ever to plummet to Earth, considerably larger than the two defunct satellites that fell last fall and landed in the water. It’s cylindrical and about the size of a van.

Roscosmos predicted that between 20 and 30 fragments of the Phobos probe with a total weight of up to 440 pounds will survive the re - entry and plummet to Earth.

It’s the third satellite to crash out of the sky in under five months: An old NASA 6ton atmospheric research satellite came tumbling down in September and a 3-ton German science satellite followed suit in October.

But both of those were well past their prime. Russia’s Phobos-ground probe is still a mere babe. It was launched in November, and a glitch left it stranded in orbit around Earth instead of bound for Mars to collect soil samples.

Roscosmos insists all the fuel will burn in the atmosphere and pose no danger, and some experts in Russia and the West share that forecast .