Miss. economy could slow, expert warns

Mississippi’s still-sluggish economy may slow even further this summer despite robust job growth over the past few months, state economist Dr. Darrin Webb says.

Leading economic indicators — things like measurements of manufacturing, unemployment, residential building permits, tax withholding and consumer expectations — grew in April, the most recent data available, he noted in his monthly report, Mississippi Business, Measuring the State’s Economy.

Webb, one of the voices state leaders heed in forecasting state revenues, wrote that employment continued growing along with other business activity included in the index of coincident indicators, one measure economists use in tracking the economy.

“The gains in this series have been fueled by the strongest job growth since before the recession,” Webb wrote. “It is not uncommon for employment to lag the business cycle, so there may be a softening of employment growth in the coming months.”

Mississippi and Illinois reported the nation’s second- highest unemployment rate in May, 9.1 percent, behind Nevada’s 9.6 percent, according to figures released Friday by the U. S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The national unemployment rate for May was 7.6 percent, the Labor Department reported.

Mississippi’s stubbornly high unemployment rate — the May jobless rate was down slightly from April’s 9.2 percent — continued despite regular reports of job gains by Gov. Phil Bryant.

Bryant announced 100 new jobs at Certain Teed in Meridian in early June just days after General Dynamics Information Technology said it would add 1,100 jobs at a customer support facility in Hattiesburg.

Those announcements, though, appear to have little effect on the state’s overall economic health.

“The Mississippi diesel fuel consumption Index continues to decline, and Mississippi manufacturing activity appears to have slowed,” Webb wrote in his report. “Given that the national economy appears to have moderated in the second quarter, a slowdown in the state growth is likely.”

Webb did find some good news to report.

He noted that The Conference Board, a nonprofit business research organization, predicts growth will resume later this year after the effects of the federal government’s sequester of funding and higher payroll taxes are absorbed.

“…The general story behind the data will likely remain — 2012 was the strongest growth since before the recession,” Webb wrote.