8 things to ponder about first-round showdown
Shooting: The performance of secondary 3-point shooters could be a swing factor. For the Grizzlies, this means Mike Miller and Courtney Lee taking advantage of the attention on the Grizzlies’ interior. For the Thunder, it could mean a couple of ancient-veteran role players who have history against the Grizzlies: Derek Fisher and Caron Butler.
Old: The Grizzlies and Thunder both have veteran starters with cratering individual production who remain in the starting lineups despite widespread pleas for change: Facing the Grizzlies’ inside game could embolden Thunder coach Scotty Brooks to stick with Kendrick Perkins even more than he normally would. The same is true for the Thunder’s perimeter scoring and the role of Tayshaun Prince for the Grizzlies. History suggests that, in this matchup, the Grizzlies are on firmer ground with Prince than the Thunder are with Perkins.
While I would love to compose a leisurely researched and deeply considered 10,000-word nerd-out on this latest Grizzlies-Thunder playoff series, a thousand words off the top of my head will have to do. Here are eight quick takes on the series:
THE NO. 2 SEED VS. NO. 7 SEED MATCHUP IS MISLEADING
The Grizzlies squeak into the playoffs as a No. 7 seed, but where would you subjectively rank them now? With Mike Conley and Marc Gasol in the lineup this season, the team has gone 37-15, a .712 winning percentage that would be good for third in the West (and first in the East). I think the Grizzlies are probably the fourth-best team in the Western Conference for playoff prognostication purposes. Since the All-Star break, with their full team pretty much intact, the Grizzlies have gone 21-9, tied for the league’s third-best record.
The Thunder, playing some without Thabo Sefolosha and strategically resting Russell Westbrook, have gone 16-11. In that time, the Thunder have a top-five offense and a mediocre defense; the Grizzlies have a top-five defense and mediocre offense. The Thunder actually have a better point differential with a worse record, but the Grizzlies have been better — much better — with “clutch” execution. Is that sustainable and repeatable or just happenstance? If this series is as tightly contested as the profiles suggest, maybe we’ll find out.
THE BIG THREES
A looming MVP, Kevin Durant has averaged 33-7- 6 since the break. Westbrook has been in and out of the lineup this season, but he had the biggest performance jump in the league since the break, as illustrated this week by ESPN.com’s Tom Haberstroh. Westbrook’s averaged 22 points in only 28 minutes a game since the All-Star break and doesn’t have to worry about back-to-backs anymore. And Serge Ibaka has bloomed this season as a consistent secondary scorer and all-league defender.
On the other side, Grizzlies fans have to be thrilled with how healthy and productive Gasol and Zach Randolph look heading into the postseason. There are some concerns with Conley’s hamstring, and he may prove the most essential player in the series, but he’s got the potential to be the second-best player on the floor.
Durant and Westbrook have a much higher ceiling than the Grizzlies’ stars. But if the Grizzlies can keep them in their normal range, there’s a chance here for the series’ stars to even one another out, which would give the Grizzlies a path to winning the series, because ...
SUPPORTING CASTS
If the Thunder have, on paper, the two best players in this series, they also have most of the worst. If you take the 10 most likely players to see the floor for each team and rank them based on PER — a limited stat, but a good snapshot of a player’s productivity — the Thunder would have six of the seven bottom players on the list, and that doesn’t factor in Grizzlies non-rotation players such as James Johnson, Jon Leuer and Beno Udrih, all of whom grade out better than their Thunder counterparts.
X-FACTORS
MOST IMPORTANT MATCHUP
It’s the one on the sidelines, between Dave Joerger and Scott Brooks. The Grizzlies have better defensive options against Durant and Westbrook than most teams, Entertainment Editor Chris Herrington also writes his “Pick-AndPop” column on the Grizzlies and the NBA at commercialappeal.com.