Putin aims to shift power

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to create a strong Russia may be part of his motivation to halt some Western agricultural imports (Aug. 7 article, “Russia limiting food from nations that back sanctions”). The halt on Western imports provides Putin with the opportunity to increase domestic food production, which in turn may lead to a more agriculturally self-sufficient Russia. Putin’s new ban on Western imports and his call for increased domestic production indicate a desire that Russia achieve economic independence from the West, a form of Russian economic nationalism.

Economic production underlies a country’s ability to provide for a modern and effective military and to leverage political power. Therefore, the ability of Russia to have a strong domestic economy, not heavily dependent on foreign imports, serves Russia’s interests. First, the ban on Western imports may reduce Western economic power and influence within Russia. In the long term, increased food production, and generally more economic independence, would mean that Putin would be free to pursue his domestic and international agendas with less concern over Western responses. Second, Putin may turn to friendly non-Western states to obtain some agricultural imports until Russian farmers are able to increase production. These actions could lead to the establishment and strengthening of trade networks that exclude Western companies and countries. This action may make it harder for the West to compete in the global economy.

Putin’s implementation of these economic policies bears careful watching by Western analysts because any one of these policies may lead to a dramatic long-term shift in economic power.