Five questions for the Tigers in 2017
Mike Norvell’s first season as head coach of the Memphis football program featured eight regular-season wins and a lopsided Boca Raton Bowl loss, spectacular performances by quarterback Riley Ferguson and wide receiver Anthony Miller and spectacular inconsistency by the Tigers’ defense.
Now, a little more than a week into 2017, here are the five most pressing questions facing the Tigers.
1. Will the rebuilt secondary hold up?
The Tigers’ secondary was noticeably improved in 2016, finishing 38th in the country in pass efficiency defense after ranking 90th in that department in 2015. But in spring ball, the group will have to start almost entirely from scratch. All four of Memphis’ top cornerbacks (Chauncey Lanier, Arthur Maulet, Dontrell Nelson and Jahmahl Pardner) are gone, as are safeties Chris Morley and Tye Northern. That’s a lot of departing production and, perhaps more importantly, experience. And it leaves the Tigers with only starting safety Jonathan Cook, junior-college cornerbacks Marcus Green and Tito Windham and a collection of unproven freshmen. Will Green and Windham be ready to step into major roles, right away? And can this group build enough chemistry to avoid frequent busted coverages in 2017?
2. What can Ferguson, Miller and company do in Year 2?
In the first year with Norvell’s offensive scheme, the Tigers averaged 38.5 points and 463.7 yards per game and recorded more yards per play (6.25) than even the 2015 squad led by Paxton Lynch (6.15 yards per play). Now, it’s on to Year 2. The offense loses only two starters (tight end Daniel Montiel and right tackle Christopher Roberson) and should be much more comfortable with Norvell’s concepts and scheme in 2017. Ferguson and Miller are also back, presumably with even better chemistry than they had a year ago. And the offensive line, which faced a steep learning curve in 2016 because of the schematic changes on offense, should be more steady — especially if four-star recruit Obinna Eze follows through with his commitment, as expected. So, can Memphis go faster and put up even bigger numbers than it did last year? It sure seems likely. In fact, the better question might be this: How high is the offense’s ceiling? 3. Will Norvell’s recruiting start to translate? Norvell was able to bring in a handful of contributors and get them up to speed for last season, from Ferguson and Cook to defensive lineman Jonathan Wilson and running back Patrick Taylor Jr. But the 2017 squad figures to have much more of his recruiting influence, as redshirt freshmen like Josh Perry, Damonte Coxie and others begin to see playing time. A two-deep that was sprinkled with Norvell recruits will now begin to show his imprint. Will a recruiting emphasis on speed translate onto the field? 4. Is the AAC West division Memphis’ to win? There’s been a lot of change in the American Athletic Conference so far this winter, with a smattering of coaching changes at UConn, Cincinnati, Houston, South Florida and Temple. Some of Memphis’ in-conference opponents in 2017 will also change, based on the AAC’s divisional rotations. Instead of facing Cincinnati, Temple and South Florida from the AAC East, the Tigers will host East Carolina and play UCF and UConn on the road — a slightly easier slate. Meanwhile, in the West, several teams are losing key pieces, including Greg Ward Jr. at Houston and Dane Evans at Tulsa. Memphis still needs to figure out Navy, something two coaching staffs have so far failed to do, but the overall lay of the land for Memphis is favorable. Can the Tigers take advantage and surge to an AAC title game appearance? 5. Will Norvell stick around? Fans hate to even think about the possibility of losing another coach so soon after Justin Fuente’s departure, but that’s the hard reality of being in a Group of Five conference like the AAC. If the Tigers are able to win their division or win nine or 10 games, Power Five suitors will likely come calling for Norvell. That’s just how it goes. The bigger question: Which jobs will be available? And where does Norvell see himself heading next? Just like Fuente, he does not seem like the type of guy who would take a Power Five job simply to be in the Power Five. Remember, he had multiple offers to leave Arizona State in multiple years before his ideal fit (Memphis) opened up. So will the right job open up? Or will Norvell return and try to push Memphis to new heights in 2018?