Smith’s coaching improves recruits
Welcome back to the Tiger basketball mailbag, which is on a roll even though Memphis is currently on a four-game losing streak. There were too many good questions to choose from (and I need some more time to report out a few of them), so thank you for that. This exercise is only as entertaining as the readers willing to participate.
This week’s edition features questions about Tubby Smith’s recruiting track record, the future of the Lawson family at Memphis, the return of former Tigers forward Nick Marshall, the potential rekindling of the Tennessee rivalry and more.
As always, you can send me questions for the weekly mailbag any time on Twitter (@mgiannotto) or via email (mark.giannotto@commercialappeal.com). The earlier I get them, the better chance I have to provide a meaningful answer and the more likely it is to be included.
From @atmorella via Twitter: “some top recruits still have not signed for 2017. Why isn’t Tubby going after? He needs to get 4 & 5 *or get new recruiters”
From @creoledawg: “how is tubby perceived amongst the nations top recruits? Old and tired...or crafty veteran that can get you to NBA?”
Let’s kick off this mailbag with a couple recruiting questions, and specifically Memphis coach Tubby Smith’s track record with the best players in the country. To answer @atmorella’s question, there are currently seven 2017 recruits in the ESPN top 40 that have not signed with a school yet. It appears Memphis only has a scholarship offer out to McDonald’s allAmerican M.J. Walker, a shooting guard from Jonesboro, Ga., but I don’t believe the Tigers are seriously in the mix for him at this point.
Oftentimes, snagging a player of this caliber from outside Memphis, particularly while competing with schools such as Kansas, Duke, Arizona and North Carolina, is all about relationship-building. Convincing a four- or five-star recruit with no ties to this city to play in a league such as the American Athletic Conference takes years of groundwork and this staff has been in place less than 11 months. Sure, they were together at Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders never pursued prospects of this caliber. In fact, Smith did not sign a top 150 recruit during his entire tenure there.
But this is also the latest indication that neither Smith nor his staff care about recruiting rankings nearly as much as fans do. At least that’s what their recent history suggests. I’ll let a couple recruiting gurus explain: Who: Memphis (18-11, 8-8) vs. Tulane (5-23, 2-14) When, where: 8 p.m. Thursday; FedExForum TV, radio: ESPNU; WREC-AM 600, WEGR-FM 102.7
Scout’s Evan Daniels: “I think Tubby Smith has had success, and this is true for everywhere he’s been, almost by recruiting top 75 to top 150 guys. He has a track record of molding players and developing them and turning them into good players in his program. Every step of the way, he’s done that. Texas Tech is the latest example. He really had some success at Texas Tech with some underthe-radar guys. I think that, first and foremost, he’s looking for guys that fit his system and how he coaches, and then he just gets them in there and tries to get them better.”
ESPN’s Jeff Borzello: “He’s not swinging for five-star guys. He’s not going for top 50, top 100 guys in some cases. He’s going to get involved with guys he thinks he can get. Whether scouting services think he’s a good enough player, it doesn’t seem to really matter to him. I think he goes after guys that he says, ‘Hey I can work with him. I can develop him. He fits what we do.’ I think he more recruits to his system and what he sees more than, ‘I’m going to stockpile four and five star guys just to say I did.”
As for how Smith is perceived among the top players in the country, that’s a more difficult question to answer. By my count, he is one of just 11 active college basketball coaches in the country with a national championship on his resume. In addition, 18 of his former players have gotten to the NBA. But I’m not sure how much that matters to today’s recruits because his national title came in 1998 and none of his former players from Minnesota or Texas Tech made it to the NBA.
I did, however, look as far back as I could in recruiting databases to examine how every Smith recruiting class stacks up. There is a perception that Smith isn’t known for snagging top recruits and, in general, that’s probably an accurate assessment. But he has had some success over the years. At Kentucky, for instance, he had the No. 1 recruiting class in the country in 2004 when he signed three top 25 recruits (according to Rivals) in Rajon Rondo, Joe Crawford and Randolph Morris. His first two full recruiting classes at Minnesota, meanwhile, were both rated among the top 25 in the country.
But Smith also hit a lull in recent years. Until he signed guard Jamal Johnson for the Tigers’ 2017 recruiting class, it had been six years since he snagged a player rated among the top 150 by recruiting services. Which, in retrospect, helps explain why he also doesn’t have many NBA alumni of late. Johnson, for the record, is rated No. 99 in the country by Rivals and No. 159 by 247 Sports composite rankings, which take into account all the major recruiting service rankings.
So to sum it up, Smith isn’t necessarily going to stockpile star ratings but that doesn’t mean he has no experience chasing and signing the nation’s top recruits. I suspect you’ll continue to see an uptick in Smith’s recruiting now that he’s back at a school with a regional base of elite prospects. However, his recent track record suggests he will not recruit at the level of his predecessors here at Memphis, at least as it pertains to the rankings. But that doesn’t seem to be his goal anyway.
From @purebredwarrior : “Nick Marshall seems to want to come back to Memphis. Could he? Even from an eligibility stand point? He’d help.”
Former Memphis forward Nick Marshall resurfaced last week with an Instagram post in which he wrote: Miss Memphis so much. Who would like to see me back in Memphis?”
If you don’t remember Marshall, he is a former top 100 recruit from the 2015 recruiting class that announced he was leaving Memphis last August after averaging 3.1 points and 2.7 rebounds as a freshman. He landed at Motlow State, a junior college in Tullahoma, but then did not play for Motlow this season.
After speaking with people at Memphis, the conclusion I got is that the ship has sailed on Marshall. He burned some bridges on his way out the door last August when he failed to respond to Smith’s phone calls and didn’t show up to offseason workouts. Though he could probably provide some immediate help in the frontcourt next year, I don’t believe the Tigers will consider taking him back. Not to mention, from what I understand, academic eligibility would be a hurdle for him to overcome as well.
I realize patience is wearing thin with some Memphis fans that aren’t accustomed to three-straight years without an NCAA tournament, but Smith is trying to build a foundation. He’s not looking for a quick fix.
From @MarionTiger : “At this point in recruiting, is there a way can we be better next year if Dedric leaves?”
We’ve reached the Dedric Lawson portion of the mailbag, and of course he’s a hot topic right now after a report surfaced last week that he may have already decided to leave school after this season. Both Dedric Lawson and his father, Keelon Lawson, have denied that’s the case without saying whether Dedric Lawson will be back next year.
The answer to this question, though, is an easy one. If Dedric Lawson isn’t playing for Memphis next year, the Tigers will almost certainly take a step back competitively. If that’s the case, Smith’s rebuild would take longer and be more painful. Obviously, the task would be easier with Lawson in the fold because it allows Memphis to contend and rebuild the roster on the recruiting trail simultaneously.
From @socaltiger : “what logic is there in someone encouraging Dedric to Leave?”
As for the question from @socaltiger about why Lawson would leave, I think this a common misconception. The reasons to stay at Memphis, in my opinion, are intriguing. Lawson could become an all-American, earn a berth into the NCAA tournament and get his college degree, all while playing with his brother in front of a hometown crowd. With a great junior season, he could perhaps work his way into a second-round pick and the 2018 NBA draft is expected to be less loaded than this upcoming one.
But in pure basketball terms, there are also plenty of good reasons why he should begin his professional career right now if he’s not interested in the college experience anymore. Lawson can develop as a player just as effectively in the D-League (soon to be renamed the GLeague) as he can here at Memphis. In fact, it might be easier to do that as a professional without NCAA practice restrictions.
We also need to take into account that Lawson’s role is going to be completely different at the professional level. Does playing out of position at the five again next year at Memphis really benefit him long-term when his professional success will likely be determined by how well he can adapt to becoming a role player and more perimeter-oriented? The NBA scouts I’ve spoken with about this dilemma seem to think Dedric Lawson is better served moving on if his intentions are simply to become a professional basketball player. If I’m hearing that, you know Dedric and his family are, too. Not to mention, what if he gets injured coming back to Memphis or doesn’t match the stellar numbers he’s putting up this season? Also, G-League salaries are expected to increase to as much as $75,000 next year under the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement.
From @wellestarr1 : “Assuming Dedric leaves are Dad and KJ out the door as well?”
What Dedric Lawson’s future means for rest of the Lawson family is more complicated and it all hinges on if Memphis is willing to continue paying Keelon Lawson to be the team’s director of player personnel. My gut feeling is that if Dedric Lawson isn’t in a Tigers’ uniform, then his father will be off the payroll.
How that would affect K.J. Lawson’s future at Memphis will be interesting. Since K.J. already redshirted last year and he hasn’t graduated yet, he would essentially lose an entire year of eligibility if he transferred to another school and sat out another season due to NCAA transfer regulations. However, it remains to be seen whether he could apply for a waiver from the NCAA because, in this scenario, his father would hypothetically no longer be on the Tigers’ staff.
All that said, I’m not sure how last week’s news really changed anything. Dedric Lawson went through the NBA draft process last year, so did anyone not expect him to do it again after this season? We might not have a definitive answer on his future until June 12, which is the deadline arrives for underclassmen to rescind their names from the draft pool. At this point, however, I’d be pleasantly surprised if Lawson is back at Memphis next year.