7 lessons we learned from Aug. 2 elections
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The yard signs are down (most of them), and the political ads have (almost) stopped. It is time to take a deep breath and figure out what happened on Aug. 2. Here are a handful of random observations about the election results and what they mean.
1. Nice guys sometimes finish first.
Negative advertising, especially poorly done negative advertising, sank the campaigns of Diane Black and Randy Boyd. Each started the Republican primary for governor with enormous advantages. But those advantages were squandered in the mutually destructive negative campaign they waged against each other. That negative barrage enabled Bill Lee to emerge as Mr. Nice Guy. Similarly, George Flinn’s unrelenting negative attacks on David Kustoff backfired and ensured that Congressman Kustoff remains in office for another term.
2. When is a wave not a wave?
Shelby County Democrats swept the county elections. From the top of the ballot to the bottom, Democrats maintained a margin of 15,000 to 20,000 in the county races. But the statewide numbers tell a different story: There were 788,941 Republican votes for governor versus 344,675 Democratic votes. This does not bode well for the Democrats in the November election.
Lee Harris’ campaign had energy and enthusiasm. Mary Wagner, the sole Republican to win election (as circuit court judge), had energy and enthusiasm.
The Shelby County Democratic Party, after years of weak candidates, infighting, scandal and chaos, emerged from its reorganization strong and united. It had its act together for the first time in decades. It ran a good slate of candidates. The slate was diverse: men and women, white and black. It exerted discipline to make sure that in key races, there were no divisive primaries. It fielded candidates in all races, so that even in those districts and races where the shot is a long one, it had a chance. You can’t win unless you run.
3. Campaigns matter. 4. Local parties matter. 5. Divided we fall.
That being said, the Democrats have a purist versus pragmatist problem — Katrina Robinson and Tami Sawyer are the leading indicators of a progressive rev- olution in the Democratic Party. Stalwarts such as Sidney Chism, who lost to Lee Harris in the May primary, and state Sen. Reginald Tate, who lost to Robinson in the August primary, reflect an old guard being pushed aside within the ranks of the Democratic Party.
Bill Lee is well positioned to unify the Republicans and win the governor’s race. As the candidate who did not engage in heavy negative advertising against his opponents, he has no enemies within the party. He will have a unified Republican Party at his back as he faces Karl Dean in November. Lee emerges as a heavy favorite to defeat Dean in November.
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6. United we stand. 7. Close but no cigar.
Marsha Blackburn’s race for the Senate seat being vacated by Bob Corker might be a closer contest than the governor’s race, but not by much. Republican turnout in the Senate primary was 725,541, a little lower than for the governor’s primary. Democratic turnout in the Senate primary was 381,490, a bit higher than turnout in the governor’s. These are still daunting numbers for the Democrats. Bredesen has to persuade a lot of Republicans to vote for him. In an age of polarization, that is unlikely.
John Ryder is a Memphis attorney, with Harris Shelton, chairman of the Republican National Lawyers Association.